SACRAMENTO - State Treasurer Phil Angelides can accurately pinpoint the biggest reason he badly trails Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race for governor: Most Californians either don't know him or have bought the ``tax-and-spend liberal'' impression molded by savvy political rivals.
Many analysts suggest that no liberal Democrat -- even one who runs a perfect campaign -- stands much of a chance against the moderate Republican whose Hollywood charm and power of incumbency give him an advantage in style and substance.
But as the Nov.
7 election quickly approaches, unmistakable signs increasingly point to an Angelides campaign that has been far from spectacular -- and certainly bears some responsibility for his inability to connect with voters and the depth of the disparity in the polls.
The campaign, according to several people with inside knowledge, has been hampered by an inconsistent strategy that was unprepared for Schwarzenegger's shift to the political center, an inability to make Angelides empathize with average voters, and the candidate's extreme desire to get involved in campaign minutiae -- to the point of insisting on whether briefing memos be stapled or paper clipped.
``Phil's having a very difficult time breaking through to the voters,'' said Larry Lyttle a former consultant to the campaign.
``And the sad part about it is, he's got good politics. He truly cares about people. He's a real good Californian, and he's very consistent in his ideology.
''
Angelides, a 53-year-old Sacramento native, has 12 days left to turn it around -- enough according to some who are convinced fired-up Democrats will show up at the polls and dismayed Republicans will stay home.
The former state employee, who later made millions as a land developer, has used two terms as treasurer to advocate his core beliefs, mainly improving public education. His desire to raise taxes on wealthy individuals to ``fully fund'' schools took center stage in the early days of the governor's race.
But the plan was thrown off course in May when Schwarzenegger announced a significant boost in education funding. The following month, Schwarzenegger launched the first bruising commercial pegging Angelides as a taxaholic who wants to take California ``backwards.''
Faced with a tough choice -- deciding whether to respond with a negative ad, or produce a friendly biographical sketch introducing himself to voters -- Angelides hit back with a rebuttal.
``We felt like it was important to be out there right away and show that we were going to fight to the end,'' said campaign manager Cathy Calfo.
What the decision really did, according to insiders, was set in motion a new strategy that sucked the fiercely competitive Angelides into a series of volleys with Schwarzenegger's skillful campaign, thus pushing him away from projecting a clear and consistent message of his own.
``It put us on complete defense,'' a campaign insider said this week, ``and left us there the entire time.
''
Calfo disputed that the campaign changed course but acknowledged the difficulty in deciding how best to respond to Schwarzenegger's attacks with limited funds.
As the campaign drew into the summer, Schwarzenegger tore further into Angelides by backing a series of traditionally left-leaning proposals -- raising the minimum wage, reducing emissions linked to global warming and easing from his opposition to illegal immigration.
``Schwarzenegger has systematically taken issues from the table that were legs under Angelides' election strategy,'' said former Angelides campaign consultant Craig Schirmer, ``and in doing so, strangled Phil's ability to prosecute his case.
''
Overmatched on his core issues, Angelides scrambled for a campaign theme, but no matter what he tried, Schwarzenegger's operation successfully convinced Californians that Angelides wanted to raise their taxes by $18 billion. The figure was indeed exaggerated, but it appeared in advertisements and was repeated daily in campaign statements.
Lucina Loera, a 49-year-old San Jose resident who classifies herself as a ``confused'' independent voter, knows this about Angelides: ``I've been hearing a lot about him; he'll increase the taxes.
''
Angelides seemed to have finally hit his stride when he promised tax cuts to the middle class, but polling suggests his proposal came too late. He then held rallies to link Schwarzenegger to President Bush to the war in Iraq, and that failed to catch on.
But none of Angelides' emerging themes could be condensed into a slogan explaining to busy voters why he should be governor.
``They've developed this schizophrenic approach to campaigning,'' said Dave Rand, an attorney and former aide to then-Gov. Gray Davis. ``They're throwing everything and anything against the wall in an effort to get something to stick.
''
Calfo says Angelides has maintained a clear message: ``Arnold Schwarzenegger is a Bush Republican who's on the side of the special interests, not on your side. And I think we've been very consistent all the way through.''
A San Jose State University poll found that more than six in 10 voters said their opinion of Bush had no effect on whom they would choose for governor.
Unable to gain ground on substance, Angelides also has issues with style -- a factor in voting behavior, experts say.
Granted, any candidate would have serious difficulty challenging a governor with movie star good looks, a keen sense of fashion and charisma. But if you're the bespectacled, wonkish Phil Angelides, whose own focus groups call him nerd, geek and pencil neck, and say he leaves the impression he's lecturing his audience in a condescending way, you've got a serious problem.
Voters notice the campaign's failings through the image portrayed in the media, especially when compared with Schwarzenegger's sizzle.
``It's lackluster, it doesn't have any pizazz, it's not interesting, it's dull, boring,'' said Barbara Hilts, a 60-year-old Hercules teacher and independent voter who told the California Field Poll that she's leaning toward electing Schwarzenegger.
Angelides has improved some of these shortcomings by donning less noticeable glasses, poking fun at his ``God-given body,'' and getting haircuts from Christophe in Beverly Hills.
Knowing his demeanor behind the podium is stern, Angelides this summer hosted a series of town hall meetings. He engaged the audience and came across as very likable, but he couldn't reach a mass audience that way.
Too often, Angelides comes across as the Ivy Leaguer who rattles off facts and figures.
``You can have the best ideas in the world,'' said Rich Masters, managing director of East Coast media consulting firm Qorvis Communications, ``but if you can't communicate them in a compelling and energetic way, people don't want to listen.''
Those who know him well say Angelides has a hard time accepting some of his shortcomings, because he wants to believe voters prefer substance over style. But that's not entirely so.
``Voters vote on the basis of impressions of the candidate, which would include style as well as issue positions,'' said Luis Fraga, a Stanford University associate professor of political science. The balance between the two shifted when Schwarzenegger pre-empted Angelides on the issues, Fraga added, which ``increased the extent to which style characteristics may influence the thinking of some voters.''
Angelides also erred, some analysts contend, because he has eschewed high-profile advisers or staffers.
``You would think that if you are going to run for the largest executive-level job in American politics besides the presidency, that you would put together a team of battle-tested campaign operatives who have done big statewide campaigns,'' said Phil Trounstine, a former communications director for Gov. Davis and now a pollster at San Jose State.
Angelides instead chose Calfo, a 49-year-old campaign manager from Santa Cruz who ran his 2002 re-election.
They are a perfect match, insiders say. Perhaps to a fault.
She lacks the experience of a high-stakes gubernatorial race, but faithfully implements campaign strategy, which most often is devised by Angelides, even if it clashes with the advice he solicits.
Several people close to the campaign said Angelides' tendency to micromanage -- down to demanding the color of paper to be used for news briefings, and deciding how wide the margins should be -- comes at the expense of handling more important tasks and has caused delays, setbacks and the exodus of several advisers.
According to a campaign spokesman, Angelides was not available to comment specifically about his involvement in the campaign.
Angelides remains as optimistic as ever.
He and his supporters are discounting recent polls and are convinced Democrats, who make up the largest party, are going to ``come home'' and that independents will swing away from the Republican Party.
``Look, this race is closing very quickly, because people have seen the very clear choice between Arnold Schwarzenegger and me,'' Angelides told reporters Tuesday at a campaign event in Sacramento. ``People understand that George Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger just aren't on their side.
''
Michael Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic presidential nominee, and good friend of Angelides, says partisan motivation will be the deciding factor in this race.
``Clearly the thread is moving in the Democratic direction,'' Dukakis said. ``Whether or not he can mobilize folks in these last couple of weeks, particularly the grass roots, is going to be the real challenge.
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