"Here we go a-wassailing." Sounds great. My cousin has a trailer.
We'll start wassailing outside the stadium seven hours before kickoff. Maybe we'll still be conscious by halftime. "We all love a figgy pudding.
" Okay, let's see, figs, raisins, molasses ...
Molasses? Is this some sort of hangover cure? "We won't go until we get some.
" Actually, you'll go when we're ready for you to leave, buddy. Otherwise, we'll crack open a can of wassail on you. "Don we now our gay apparel.
" Oh, gosh, didn't know it was that kind of party. Look at the time. Gotta run.
"Peace on earth, goodwill towards men, from heaven's gracious king." Now you're making sense, buddy. Amen.
Eagles at Cowboys: So much has happened since the Eagles beat the Cowboys in Week 5. There was the T.O.
children's book, the T.O. ignoring Bill Parcells incident, the T.
O. sleep disorder incident, the T.O.
snitch incident, and the T.O. spitting incident.
Oh, yeah, Donovan McNabb got hurt, Drew Bledsoe got benched, and assorted other non-T.O.-centric events also took place.
For those of you with a short memory (and a vice-like grip on your sanity), we were in the throes of the T.O. pill incident when these teams last met.
McNabb was not just healthy but on fire, completing bombs to Reggie Brown and Hank Baskett in the Eagles' victory. Bledsoe was still rooted like a Douglas Fir in the Cowboys pocket, suffering seven sacks in a game that marked the beginning of the end of his Cowboys career. And Terrell Owens gave Philadelphia fans what they wanted most of all (besides an Eagles victory): a nearly invisible three-catch performance, complete with some untimely drops.
The game was much closer than the 38-24 score indicates: the Cowboys nearly tied the game in the final seconds before Lito Sheppard returned Bledsoe's third interception 102 yards for a touchdown. A month ago, all Eagles fans wanted in their stockings was a sweep of the Cowboys. But after winning three straight games against conference opponents, the Eagles have their eyes on a bigger prize: the NFC East crown.
The Eagles will win the division if they win out. But the Cowboys are also big-game hunters right now: the NFC East and a first-round postseason bye are at stake, and they want to spend as much of January in Big D as possible. A lot has changed since Week 5.
Tony Romo gives the Cowboys a more mobile quarterback to combat the Eagles pass rush, but the Eagles secondary is also healthier (Sheppard is at full speed and Rod Hood is back), so they won't have to scheme to hide their nickel and dime corners. Jeff Garcia isn't McNabb, but Andy Reid has started running the ball more, and it turns out that the Eagles have a darn good ground game. The Cowboys are surrounded by even more distractions now than they were then, but Bill Parcells seems to have gotten his team to tune them out (maybe Owens is giving lessons).
If nothing else, the change of venue favors the Cowboys, who were clearly rattled by the bloodthirsty Philly crowd in October. Standard Rundown policy prevents us from making a pick for Eagles-Cowboys games. It's also a bad idea to reveal your deepest Christmas wishes to strangers on the Internet.
But somewhere below peace on Earth and above the season five 24 DVD boxed set, you'd better believe that there's an Eagles victory on our list. Chargers at Seahawks: All year long, the Seahawks have posted lousy DVOA rankings, despite the fact that they stood firmly atop the NFC West standings. At Football Outsiders, we have faith in our stats, but we usually took the Seahawks ratings with a grain of salt.
They were without Matt Hasselbeck for a few weeks. They were without Shaun Alexander for a few weeks. Other guys were hurt.
DVOA isn't adjusted for injuries, so we figured that the Seahawks would start playing better (and posting better numbers) once their key players got healthy again. Well, everyone's back, and the Seahawks are still ranked shockingly low: 24th overall, and 26th when our stats are weighted to emphasize recent games. Our methods indicate that the Seahawks have the stats of a 5-9 team, not an 8-6 team.
Their saving grace has been the league's easiest schedule and a "knack" for close wins, which is another way of saying that they have gotten lucky. It's easy to forget that the Seahawks' record is built on ugly wins against second-class teams (9-6 over the Lions, 24-22 and 30-28 wins over the Rams). DVOA doesn't forget that sort of thing.
The Seahawks are clearly lacking something. Can you guess what? "We have to get our swagger back as a team," quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said.
"That doesn't come from talking about it or pretending. It comes from being confident in your assignments, being confident in what you're supposed to do." Yep, the Seahawks have been counting on that pretend swagger for too long this season.
They have to find the real McCoy. While they are searching (probably in the dark, as Seattle spent most of the weekend without power), they might also want to find their ability to block and tackle. If the Seahawks thought that last week's loss to the Niners was a wake-up call, then this week's matchup with the Chargers will sound like a Reveille bugle in each eardrum.
The Chargers are ahead of the competition in their quest for top playoff seeding in the AFC, but the Ravens hold a tiebreaker advantage and can claim the top spot if the Chargers slip. They've got plenty to play for, so they'll be going full tilt. Their physical, disciplined offense will steamroll the Seahawks front seven.
Their pass rush will knife through an offensive line that's still talking about "finding continuity" in late December. The Seahawks aren't a bad team, but they are a one-and-done playoff team that wasn't as good as advertised this year. After this game, they'll still be staggering around searching for swagger in the dark.
That pick isn't based on DVOA, though Football Outsiders' statistical analysis does indicate that the Jaguars are the better team. The pick isn't based on careful scouting, though we tend to think that the Jaguars can do a lot of things that the Dolphins did defensively against the Patriots, turning this game into a trench war. No, the pick is based on the fact that the Jaguars are often terrible against weaker foes (the Titans, Texans, and Redskins) but play up to their best opponents (the Colts, the good NFC East teams).
It stands to reason that they will come out strong against the Patriots. This type of analysis is unscientific and a little silly, but nothing else has worked when trying to explain the Jaguars this season. It's tea-leaf time, friends.
Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are hurt? No worries. David Garrard is giving the ball away the way a department store Santa doles out candy canes?
Who cares. Take the Jaguars. And if they make the playoffs, heck, pick them to go all the way to the Super Bowl.
Vikings at Packers: This game will help us answer an important question: which of these two teams is closer to competing with the Bears? Sure, the Bears have clinched home field advantage and have lapped their divisional foes, but research shows that their dynasty won't last very long. Defensive excellence is much harder to sustain than offensive excellence, and special teams superiority rarely lasts from year to year.
If the Bears defense and special teams fall even halfway back to earth next year, they are an 8-8 team ripe for the unseating. Assuming that the Lions remain chopped liver (a safe assumption, since groundskeepers have just covered the turf at their practice facility with saut e ed onions), the Vikings and Packers have a great opportunity to make a swift return to contention. The Vikings have a solid offensive line and a pretty darn good defensive front seven.
The Packers have exciting youngsters all over the place and you-know-who at quarterback (you know he'll be back next year). Both teams have head coaches who did a lot right in their first seasons. It isn't hard to see one of these teams going 10-6 next season and giving the Bears fits.
We think the Vikings will be that team next year; give them a good quarterback (Matt Schaub, for example) and they'll look a lot better. But the Packers will win this week, because they can light up the Vikings secondary with no concern that the Vikings quarterbacks will threaten theirs. (Oh, yeah, both teams are still technically in the playoff picture, as are 23 other NFL teams.
But c'mon.) Chiefs at Raiders: Lamar Hunt passed away just after Rundown went to press last week, so we didn't have an opportunity to pay proper respect to one of the fathers of modern football. The most touching sentiments we heard about the AFL co-founder and Chiefs owner came from an unlikely source: Al Davis.
"We were rivals, we were friends, we were competitors. Lamar Hunt is a legend and will be sorely missed as he has been a part of our lives for the past five decades." Raider Nation is also grieving this week: clubhouse assistant George "Run-Run" Jones passed at the team headquarters on Sunday.
Jones started working for the Raiders in 1963; between them, Hunt and Jones represent almost a century of pro football history, from the board rooms to the boiler rooms. Christmas is a time to remember the good times with those that went before us, so remember Hunt and Jones as the Chiefs and Raiders play what should be a pretty forgettable game. Somewhere in heaven's ring of luxury boxes, Jones and Hunt, Raider and Chief, employee and employer, will be watching side-by-side.
Saints at Giants: The Saints are in the playoffs and have an inside track to the second seed in the NFC, but they aren't celebrating. Their loss to the Redskins served as a harsh reminder that they are a team with .500 talent playing over their heads.
The Giants are still in good position to lock up a Wild Card berth, but they aren't celebrating. Their loss to the Eagles served as yet another reminder that they are a very talented team playing down to their worst habits. This is the time of year where it's easy to make the mistake of picking the "playoff hardened" team to prevail.
The Giants have been down this road, they know what it takes, and so on. Don't buy into it. Experience has gotten the Giants nowhere but deeper into a rut in the last six weeks.
And let's not overstate the Saints' inexperience: Drew Brees, Mike McKenzie, and others have some playoff experience to draw from. The Saints will confuse, aggravate, and embarrass the Giants defense this week with their kitchen sink offense. Look for reverses, wacky formations, and lots of misdirection as they try to force mental errors.
When the Giants crumble, they won't point fingers or blast each other in the press. They are way past that. They'll assemble their golf bags and play out the string.
Titans at Bills: Where should Rundown go with this preview? Here are your options: a) The "Both Teams are Still Alive" angle. The team that loses this game is officially, finally eliminated from contention.
All the winner needs to reach the postseason is another win in Week 17, plus a nigh-impossible series of catastrophes to befall the Broncos, Jets, Jaguars, and other contenders. That means this game will have a playoff atmosphere: 76 percent nitrogen, 20 percent oxygen, and four percent stale light beer breath. b) The "Two Emerging Gunslingers" angle.
J.P. Losman spent two years as a Rundown whipping boy, but the kid is clearly coming around.
"He's grown a lot," Lee Evans said after last week's win over the Dolphins. "You can see him starting to get it." And while Vince Young was propped up by his defense in Tennessee's latest upset, he's the reigning King of Hype (though Jeff Garcia is gaining on him, because all Garcia does is win, baby).
c) The "Music City Miracle" angle, in which we ignore all of the exciting things happening in Tennessee and Buffalo and focus instead on a fluke play that decided a playoff game five years ago. And the winner is ..
. Music City Miracle by a mile. Cue the video, complete with the dotted line to mark the trajectory of the ball.
Get Frank Wycheck on the phone. Write up a trivia quiz do you remember who actually fielded the kickoff? Get some reactions from Doug Flutie, because, well, everybody loves Flutie!
What can we say? We're total sellouts. Panthers at Falcons: Jim Mora swears he was just trying to be funny when he announced that he would leave Atlanta to take the head coaching job at University of Washington the moment the job became available.
Pretty hysterical, Jimbo. Here's a list of some of the other jokes you can find in Mora's Big Book of Rib-Ticklers: 1) Honey, that dress makes your butt look like a battleship. 2) I was just saying "hello" to my friend Jack as we were boarding the airplane.
3) Orange you glad I didn't say "banana"? 4) Let's broadcast a fake Martian invasion on the eve of World War II and make it sound as real as possible. 5) Michael Vick is a great pocket passer, and this defense is built to contend.
After their miserable midseason slump, we aren't surprised that the Falcons are bowing out and Mora is advertising his availability. But we expected a little more from the Panthers, who started their skid long before Brett Basanez became a household name (in his own household, anyway). "We are going to change things up as far as what we're doing and who we're doing it with," coach John Fox said.
"We need to find answers." Jake Delhomme suddenly is not the answer in Carolina Fox denied that Delhomme is through in Carolina, and he sounded almost as sincere as Mora did but Basanez and Chris Weinke aren't suitable substitutes. Maybe when Mora leaves, the Panthers can acquire Schaub, the Vikings can pick up Delhomme, and .
.. never mind.
But wait, we've jumped the gun a bit. Hermey the Football Outsiders Playoff Scenario Elf says that neither the Panthers nor the Falcons are mathematically eliminated. "They're just a couple of misfits," Hermey explained.
What's the matter with misfits? They can be terrible to watch this time of year. If forced to pick, we'll take the Falcons in the dome.
But both of these teams deserve to be nestled in their beds come January. Bucs at Browns: The Bucs are 0-7 on the road and are still in pretty good position to end up with the first pick in the 2007 draft. Jon Gruden swears that he isn't concerned about job security, but he isn't exactly shopping for beachfront property in Dunedin, either.
"Right now it's a cold dark place, and you've got to keep your fist rolled up and live through these times and you've got to be a survivor," Gruden said. "You've got to keep pushing." Old Chucky clearly needs a pat on the back from the Glazer family.
Or possibly a strong laxative. Bengals at Broncos: Hermey tells us that the Bengals clinch a playoff berth this week with a win, a Bills loss or tie, and a loss by either the Jets or Jaguars. The Broncos clinch with a win, a Chiefs loss or tie, and a loss by either the Jets or Jaguars.
Hermey kicks butt. He even gives us these updates using cool Boolean operators that we don't quite understand: Bengals = win AND (NOT Bills win AND (Jets loss OR Jaguars loss)). Despite their Monday night setback and the Mile High factor, we like the Bengals in this game, and we think they can do more damage in the postseason.
Jets at Dolphins: Eric Mangini psyched his troops up for last week's matchup with the Vikings by showing them a tape of junior welterweight boxer Aaron "The Hawk" Pryor, who used to smile as he climbed off the canvas after knockdowns to show opponents that adversity didn't faze him. Sure enough, the Jets were grinning ear to ear after spotting the Vikings a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on Sunday, and they roared back for a 26-13 victory. "We had talked in our locker room and in our meetings about there being some adversity sometimes in this game, and when it happened we had to look at each other and smile and stare it right in the face, "Chad Pennington said after the game.
Mangini decided against showing Rocky Balboa this week, because he wants his team smiling, not laughing hysterically. Cardinals at Niners: Did the Niners turn the corner by beating the Seahawks last Thursday? Or was that game a rain-soaked anomaly?
"I like to think this is who we are," Nolan said after the game. He can convince some skeptics this week by building on his success and avenging Arizona's Week 1 victory. Ravens at Steelers: The Steelers have won five of their last six games.
They've outscored their opponents 84-13 in their last three games. This year's late surge would look a lot like last year's, except that a) The Steelers dug themselves too deep a hole and b) Their lone loss in the past six weeks was a 27-0 bucket of ice water splashed on their faces by the Ravens. "We can't be mad at nobody but us.
We put ourselves in this situation," Joey Porter said. "The tough thing about it is having your playoff hopes in somebody else's hands." Those hands may belong to either Steve McNair or Kyle Boller; McNair injured his throwing hand last week and is questionable against the Steelers.
Boller showed last week that he can move the ball, but there's a big difference between the Browns and the streaking Steelers. No matter who plays, we like the Ravens as 3.5 point dogs.
The Steelers aren't as bad as they looked in mid-season, but they aren't as great as they have looked in the past three weeks, either. Bears at Lions: The Bears have clinched home field advantage for the playoffs. Now begins the age-old question: how much rest do the starters need?
"It's not like we're going to shut down our team," Lovie Smith said after Sunday's overtime win. "We have a few things to correct going into the playoffs." Here's a suggestion, coach: keep Rex Grossman out there, because you don't want Brian Griese to come in, throw six touchdown passes, and start a quarterback controversy.
Keep the offensive linemen in there, too, because otherwise Grossman will get killed. Let Brian Urlacher, Lance Biggs, and the other defensive starters play about a half in each of the final two games so they stay sharp. As for Devin Hester, wrap him in blankets, surround him with Green Berets, and lay him on a couch in front of the fireplace until mid-January.
Redskins at Rams: Ladell Betts had another great game last week, rushing for 119 yards against the Saints. "Ladell made a real statement," Joe Gibbs said after the game. The statement was clearly: "Why the * $^ did you waste a second-round pick on T.
J. Duckett at the beginning of the year?" The much-maligned Rams run defense allowed just 57 rushing yards last week, further proof that the Raiders couldn't find a winning formula if you gave them a GPS and a compass.
Look for Betts to have another big day against the Rams, and listen for Dan Snyder's phone to ring as teams start to inquire about Clinton Portis. Colts at Texans: Texans defensive tackle Anthony Maddox summed up his team's effort in a 40-7 loss to the Patriots last week simply. "We played like trash.
" Look carefully in the luxury suites this week and you may see Oscar the Grouch. Please welcome the Football Outsiders singers (tenor Aaron Schatz, baritone Tim Gerheim, bass Michael David Smith, alto Yours Truly, and guest mezzo soprano Bryant Gumball) as we sing our own arrangement of Carol of the Bells: "D-V-O-A, D-V-O-A, D-V-O-A, D-V-O-A." Season's greetings and best wishes.
Oh, and Lorenzo Neal fielded the kickoff in the Music City Miracle.
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