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Andy Jones  |  by fergusononfilms.localintheknow.com. All rights reserved. 19.12 | 18:33













On Sunday, March 5, millions will tune in to watch as a selection of films from 2005 (and some earlier) are blessed by the longest-running awards ceremony dedicated to films, The Academy Awards - or the Oscars as they are better known. These nominated entries aren't necessarily the best films, but we hope for the best. Rather, they are some of last year's most celebrated, popular and successful films, and if watching the same films we've seen trumpeted for many months isn't entertaining then at least some of us take pleasure in the narcissism of making our own predications and tallying correct guesses.



For my money (which is zero - this blog is a non-paying gig), these are the films I believe will win. As an exercise in further narcissism, I've made mention of the films I believe should win as well (oh, were my opinion worth a jot to the suits and skirts at the Kodak Theater).

Here are the categories:

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
- Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Diana Ossana, James Schamus
- Capote (2005) - Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael Ohoven
- Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Cathy Schulman
- Good Night, And Good Luck.

(2005) - Grant Heslov
- Munich (2005) - Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy, Barry Mendel

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Munich

- Brokeback Mountain is hardly the first film of quality to prominently feature gay characters or homosexual love, yet it has somehow taken on the aura of The Big One - the first openly gay film of significance. Whatever. It is a very good, deeply sorrowful picture - a tragic love story above all else, as those who seek to define it beyond its gay subtext attest - but when it is voted Best Motion Picture Of The Year by the Academy on Sunday night it will be as a firm testament to liberal Hollywood's acceptance of gays into the mainstream.

The primary motivation, among the cynical, is that the choice is more political than cinematic. Many feel this is the sort of statement Hollywood needs to make - a big step forward for gays everywhere, opening the door to bigger and bolder expressions of homosexual experiences. While this is certainly a landmark Oscar in a positive sense, others like myself worry that the gesture is half-hearted, as if to say "We will never discriminate against gays - after all, look at Brokeback Mountain!

" Not all the major players in Hollywood are as supportive of gays as an award for Brokeback might indicate, but it will win because it's progressive enough to be a cause but conservative and traditional enough of a film to play relatively safe with those uncomfortable with homosexuality. If there is a dark horse this year, however, it is Paul Haggis' racial drama Crash, which has been amassing more and more notoriety since opening wide in May and finding a steady audience theatrically and on DVD. Crash also nicked the SAG (Screen Actors' Guild) award for best ensemble out from under the cast of Brokeback, much to the surprise of many who saw Brokeback as an awards juggernaut, and noted film critic Roger Ebert vows that we'll see an upset Sunday night in Crash's favour.

The other three nominees each deserve their place here, but none more than Steven Spielberg's Munich. A devastating film about the moral and ethical complications of violence and revenge, Munich in another year would have been a front-runner for the big prize. This year its politics were far more controversial than those of Brokeback Mountain, though, and it never managed to build enough steam at the box office.

Besides, Spielberg already got away with one historically important film in Schindler's List, which makes passing Munich over for the award that much easier with the opportunity to do positive PR by honouring Brokeback. I won't be disappointed to see it win, but my sincerest wish is that its Oscar won't be some sort of token gay win. I want to be assured that when the time comes that a serious gay-themed film is a major awards contender its chances for an Oscar won't be hindered simply because Brokeback had already been there and done that.



Best Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
- Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote (2005)
- Terrence Howard for Hustle Flow (2005)
- Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
- Joaquin Phoenix for Walk The Line (2005)
- David Strathairn for Good Night, And Good Luck. (2005)

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote
Should Win: Terrence Howard for Hustle Flow

- One of the more surprising twists in the pre-Oscar race was the shift in focus from Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain to Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote. While Brokeback is still thought to be a contender for Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (among other awards), it now appears that it will go completely unrecognized in the acting categories.

Heath was long considered the likely winner after the well of support for Brokeback, but his tight-lipped laconic performance was hardly believed to really be the best of the year. The SAG (Screen Actors' Guild) Awards and Golden Globes rightfully acknowledged Philip Seymour Hoffman's embodiment of the effete and tormented life of successful author and notorious social creature Truman Capote. He is subsequently expected to win the Oscar this year too.

However, other circles firmly believe in Joaquin Phoenix's chances of winning for his uncanny performance (including spot-on singing voice) as the late country superstar Johnny Cash in Walk The Line. I don't think he will edge out Hoffman, though, regardless of his knack for getting Cash just right. While his is on the winning side of the biographical portrayal, providing audiences with insight into the character being presented, David Strathairn's turn as celebrated American television journalist Edward R.

Murrow in Good Night, And Good Luck. is accurate yet mechanical. Strathairn's Murrow is insular, offering no clues as to his internal motivations.

What we get is less of a person and more of a documentary-style recreation, albeit done quite well. The least likely to win, though, is the actor I most want to win. It-boy Terrence Howard (he of the four theatrical roles this year) was a treasure as the hard-on-his-luck pimp DJay in Hustle Flow, who looked to a career as a rapper as a means to better himself and provide escape from the suffocation and hopelessness of inner city life.

The movie has been dismissed as formulaic rags-to-riches inspirational pablum, but then what was Walk The Line, or last year's Ray? It's a quality film with a deceptively simple yet complex lead. Howard's DJay has ferocity, but he is not ferocious; he is imbued with vulnerability and the capacity for innocent joy, philosophizing about life and discovering respect for himself and the women in his life.

That the Academy recognized Howard with a nominated was very forward-thinking, and while I'm satisfied with the nod and happy to accept Hoffman as this year's winner, what a pleasant surprise it would be if DJay walked away with a golden Oscar to match his bling.

Best Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
- Judi Dench for Mrs Henderson Presents (2005)
- Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (2005)
- Keira Knightley for Pride Prejudice (2005)
- Charlize Theron for North Country (2005)
- Reese Witherspoon for Walk The Line (2005)

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon for Walk The Line
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon for Walk The Line

- This adulation over Dame Judi Dench has to stop. She's an adequate actress, to be sure, but she's not deserving of nomination after nomination - five over the last eight years - nor the win for her cameo in Shakespeare In Love.

Her performance in Mrs Henderson Presents is of little consequence and merely moves the story along without drawing us into the titular character. To think that she was recognized while others like Q'Orianka Kilcher (The New World) and Joan Allen (The Upside Of Anger) were ignored is enough to consider legal action for theft. Thankfully, she's low on the totem pole this year.

Just above her are Keira Knightley and Charlize Theron, whose respective roles were certainly Oscar-calibre but this year are not up to the standard of the lead contenders. They would be this year's Golden Globe winners for both Best Actress awards (comedy/musical and drama), Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman. Witherspoon, now the highest-paid actress in the world, is an American darling - a very sweet and affable young woman with a string of popular hits behind her.

She's the odds-on favourite this year but, unlike her predecessor Julia Roberts, there isn't a rift between popular consensus and critical consideration. Many agree that hers is the best of the nominated performances. Witherspoon's portrayal of country sensation June Carter Cash in the Johnny Cash biopic Walk The Line is sincere, filled with empathy for a woman whose marginal role in a famous country music family was elevated to stardom by a man she was reluctant to accept into her life but proved to be her enduring lifelong romance.

I think she's stiff competition for Felicity Huffman's Bree in the little-seen Transamerica. Sure, "Desperate Housewives" is a smash and has garnered her Emmy attention, but her role as a pre-op transsexual doesn't have the instant relatability of a purty little June Carter. I suspect the Academy would rather hunker down with Reese and honour June Carter's life and music by proxy.

Maybe Huffman will stand a chance at next year's awards if Stephen Colbert's oft-touted The Splendiferous Zeppelin Escapades Of Filliam H. Muffman ever gets off the ground (not enough people saw that..

.).

Best Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
- George Clooney for Syriana (2005)
- Matt Dillon for Crash (2004)
- Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man (2005)
- Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
- William Hurt for A History Of Violence (2005)

Will Win: George Clooney for Syriana
Should Win: Matt Dillon for Crash

- The only thing for certain in this category is that George Clooney's Golden Globe win for his role in Syriana will hardly guarantee him a victory on Oscar night.

Well, that and William Hurt simply won't win for his mannered and eccentric turn as a wiseguy-cum-disloyal brother in A History Of Violence. In a year of truly outstanding performances, Hurt's a light-weight without much support behind him from a film with perhaps even less support behind it. Paul Giamatti's appearance here is pretty much due to his two consecutive snubs for roles in American Splendor and last year's Sideways, for which Thomas Hayden Church was recognized as the more worthy of an arguably evenly-matched duo.

If he wins, which he could, it will be less for his role in Cinderella Man and more for the recognition of a small body of work. This year's most infamous cinematic duo, on the other hand, was happily rewarded with Oscar attention. Heath Ledger was a nomination lock early on for his lead role in Brokeback Mountain, but Jake Gyllenhaal's work - his best yet - wasn't necessarily a shoo-in.

He's a very deserving young star and a welcome sight here yet, keeping his shaky status in mind, Gyllenhaal is unlikely to be swept up with wave of admiration for the film and ride the crest to a win. Truthfully, Sunday night's competition rests between George Clooney and Matt Dillon. Clooney may be favoured after his triumph at the Globes, and he is indeed outstanding as the bedraggled covert CIA patsy, but the most apt to spoil this year is Matt Dillon for his role as the cop with a lot of misplaced anger and resentment in Crash, also this year's dark horse for Best Picture.

Dillon's part was the stand-out from the film, and as early as June when I first saw it I had him pegged as Best Supporting Actor, pending future releases. Well, those releases are no longer pending, and after all this time I'm still rooting for him to win.

Best Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
- Amy Adams for Junebug (2005)
- Catherine Keener for Capote (2005)
- Frances McDormand for North Country (2005)
- Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener (2005)
- Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Will Win: Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener
Should Win: Amy Adams for Junebug

- Amy Adams.

Junebug was the last of the nominated films I saw, and until I got caught up I was firmly confident that not only would Rachel Weisz walk away with the Oscar but that she also gave the best female supporting performance of the year. After Amy Adams' first scene in Junebug I felt differently. She is a force of nature, to put it mildly, whose boundless energy and sweetness amidst the repressed disappointment and resigned sadness of her angry young husband's family is most certainly the ballast that keeps it from breaking apart.

In a household where words are often muttered just out of earshot, a mis/non-communication representing the deeper isolation each family member endures, Adams' pregnant Ashley is a chatterbox with a gleeful inquisitiveness, yearning for contact, and spiritual adherence that is hopeful where perhaps there ought not be much hope, yet vulnerable and true because she is only human after all. It is a remarkable, whirlwhind effort that looks effortless - a mark of precision and skill. Rachel Weisz, however, is still poised to win; her Golden Globe and SAG (Screen Actors' Guild) wins and other critics' accolades are all in her favour.

She is functionally feisty as the enigmatic activist Tessa in The Constant Gardener, and gives a layered performance in one of the year's best films, so an Oscar win all things considered is quite probable. The other three nominees are, in their own respects, Oscar-worthy yet none play especially pivotal roles in their respective films - save for, perhaps, Michelle Williams' spurned housewife in Brokeback Mountain. Long thought of to be a major competitor, Williams has faded from the spotlight considerably since the film's premiere many months ago and seems destined to be this year's runner-up.

Catherine Keener plays an admirable foil to the free-wheeling whim of Truman Capote in Capote, but has no stand-out scenes. Instead, she has moments of quiet power that bolster the film by providing a stable counterpoint to Capote's obsession and mental anguish - accomplished to a satisfactory effect. Frances McDormand in North Country is a delightful throwback to Marge Gunderson, the savvy down-home cop from Fargo for which she won an Oscar nine years ago.

This time, she doesn't manage to carve out enough of an identity for her character; I'm constantly reminded of Marge, waiting for her to cheerily exclaim "You betcha!" Of the two country folk in this category, I stand behind Amy Adams' Ashley - waiting for her to waddle up for a bear hug.

Best Achievement In Directing
- George Clooney for Good Night, And Good Luck.

(2005)
- Paul Haggis for Crash (2004)
- Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
- Bennett Miller for Capote (2005)
- Steven Spielberg for Munich (2005)

Will Win: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Steven Spielberg for Munich

- Well, Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, right? Lee was this year's recipient of the DGA (Directors' Guild of America) award and, historically, very few DGA winners get snubbed on Oscar night. Make no mistake, this man is a lock.

It's just too bad the Oscar he'll win won't have been for his much more deserving Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in 2001 for which we was nominated but lost to Steven Soderbergh. This year, the more deserving director, ironically, is also named Steven. Mr.

Spielberg's triumphant Munich is an evocation of the 1972 Olympic massacre of Israeli atheletes at the hands of Palestinian terrorists which bravely takes both sides, or neither, choosing to show how territorial, nationalistic, and idealogical bloodlust makes everyone losers. Spielberg's mastery of filmmaking is at full capacity here in what I believe is his strongest film since 1993's Schindler's List, but sadly it's not to be. The other three directors are all newcomers to the category and, after each doing commendable jobs with their respective films, will have hopefully secured a foot in the door for a return to Oscar glory some time down the line.



Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
- Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
- Good Night, And Good Luck. (2005) - George Clooney, Grant Heslov
- Match Point (2005) - Woody Allen
- The Squid And The Whale (2005) - Noah Baumbach
- Syriana (2005) - Stephen Gaghan

Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Syriana

- After I first saw Crash I felt that the interwoven stories of its principle characters was uncomfortably contrived, compromising the gritty realism of racism it was concerned with. It played as more of a manipulative fantasy than a serious drama.

Roger Ebert, a staunch supporter of the film in the face of various dissenting criticism, argues that the deliberate manner in which the characters intersect with one another (and crash) has the quality of a modern-day parable, however, and goes so far as to liken writer/director Paul Haggis' work to that of celebrated author Charles Dickens. Viewed this way, I'm able to appreciate the film and Haggis' screenplay more deeply. It's an original look at racism and prejudice that isn't meant to offer a five-point plan on solving it but rather implies that we all play a part in it and we all have our own lessons to learn.

No doubt this is a film that has resonated with a lot of people since opening wide last May; it built an audience through word-of-mouth and persevered at the box office to command a surprising profit. As well, it overcame the curse of an early-year open in May to garner considerable Oscar attention (most awards contenders are released in the period following the Toronto International Film Festival in September). It's a success story all around, and though this seems to be Brokeback Mountain's year at the Oscars, at least Haggis and Crash will have this award.

Still, I'm partial to Stephen Gaghan's Syriana, a densely intelligent film about the state of oil politics in the world today. Like his earlier screenplay for Traffic, Syriana presents the unintended consequences and subsequent necessary evils of mass dependency on a limited resource (narcotics in the former, oil in the latter). As well, Gaghan's screenplay is almost impenetrable to the casual viewer, immersing them in the situation presented before them to a confusing degree with the purpose of simulating the experience of being involved in the dizzyingly complex and corrupt world of oil.

Beyond both nominees, George Clooney and Grant Heslov's Good Night, And Good Luck. is second-only to Crash this year, and Noah Baumach's The Squid And The Whale is a critically-acclaimed work. Woody Allen's Match Point is wickedly cutting and true, but suffers perhaps from being so strinkingly similar to his earlier Crimes And Misdemeanors.

Certainly, though, there is not a wrong choice in the bunch.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
- Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
- Capote (2005) - Dan Futterman
- The Constant Gardener (2005) - Jeffrey Caine
- A History Of Violence (2005) - Josh Olson
- Munich (2005) - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Munich

- This is one of the strongest categories of the night where it is difficult to choose the most deserving winner. However, the screenplay that will win is Brokeback Mountain by Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, based on the short story by Annie Proulx.

Its WGA (Writers' Guild of America) win and the sheer momentum of the film are enough to secure it as a lock on March 5. If it wins I won't be disappointed, but my preference is Tony Kushner and Eric Roth's screenplay for Munich, the story of the 1972 Olympic massacre which gives due consideration to both the Israelis and the Palestinians. There are no winners in this age-old conflict as violence begets violence.

And on that subject, I feel very strongly about John Olson's treatment for A History Of Violence which is a stirring evisceration of humanity's culture of violence. However, that film owes more of its impact to David Cronenberg's direction, which was curiously absent from the directing nominees while the screenplay got the nod - go figure. Capote and The Constant Gardener are also worthy though unlikely winners which, in any other year, could have had a shot at the prize.



Best Achievement In Cinematography
- Batman Begins (2005) - Wally Pfister
- Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Rodrigo Prieto
- Good Night, And Good Luck. (2005) - Robert Elswit
- Memoirs Of A Geisha (2005) - Dion Beebe
- The New World (2005) - Emmanuel Lubezki

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: The New World

- Apart from Memoirs, this is a very strong roster of nominees. Batman Begins' camerawork is a pleasant and worthy surprise here; the film owes much of its dark tone and mood to Wally Pfister's careful and skilled work.

However, it's just happy to be nominated and, as the singular nod for the film this year, is a long-shot to win. Good Night, And Good Luck. is a strong candidate for its stark black and white picture.

Its ingenious use of grey scale is, on the surface, a throwback to the '50s-era television journalism the film depicts, but on a deeper level it accentuates the moral grey area of Senator McCarthy's Communist witch-hunts examined by the team of reporters led by Edward R. Murrow and Fred Friendly. A win for Robert Elswit and this film would be deserved, though I can't see it besting Rodrigo Prieto's work on Brokeback Mountain.

Despite being of negligible importance when considering the other forces at work in making the film's impact felt, the film's cinematography still calls to mind the titular mountain and evokes the boundless freedom - and insurmountable loneliness - that has been the great joy and sorrow of characters Ennis and Jack's lives. It's quality work, and since this appears to be Brokeback's year, I've no doubt it will win. Yet, my vote goes to Emmanuel Lubezki's dazzling and poetic work on The New World, which was astoundingly neglected but for this category.

One thing is certain for lovers of film, and that is when director/writer Terrence Malick releases a film, you can expect voluptuous, gorgeous visuals that are as much a part of the story and experience of the film as anything else. Seeing the film was one of the great anticipations and joys of 2005, and more than any other nominee in this category has stayed with me.

Best Achievement In Editing
- Cinderella Man (2005) - Daniel P.

Hanley, Mike Hill
- The Constant Gardener (2005) - Claire Simpson
- Crash (2004) - Hughes Winborne
- Munich (2005) - Michael Kahn
- Walk The Line (2005) - Michael McCusker

Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Munich

- Of 2005's two notable hyperlink films (which Roger Ebert defines as films which juggle numerous characters and plots, jump-cutting from one to the next as part of a lager story), it's puzzling how Crash was nominated over Syriana, a film whose editing left a bigger impact on me. Being jerked around from story-to-story and character-to-character had the effect of placing the viewer in the confusing thick of things. Part of this was no doubt due to Stephen Gaghan's screenplay, but a lesser editor could unwisely have made things easier for the viewer.

Consequently, Crash's force is felt more through its SAG-winning ensemble performance, and not through the editing, which was rather facile. By the same token, The Constant Gardener was rather opaque and inaccessible at times, but this was purely for dramatic purposes. Its editing manipulated us into sharing in the despondency of Ralph Fiennes's character's memories and suspicions as he investigated the mystery of his dead wife.

The film most deserving would be Munich, which hit all the right notes in its style and presentation. Its pace, rhythm, and editing choices gave the film a sombre pensiveness that allowed the audience time and space to reflect on the moral implications of the violent acts which were being committed in the name of nationalism. However, this is Crash's award to lose as it appears to be the most popular of the bunch with audiences and critics who regard Munich as too much of a political hot potato to recognize so fully.



Best Achievement In Art Direction
- Good Night, And Good Luck. (2005) - James D. Bissell, Jan Pascale
- Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire (2005) - Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan
- King Kong (2005) - Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Simon Bright
- Memoirs Of A Geisha (2005) - John Myhre, Gretchen Rau
- Pride Prejudice (2005) - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

Will Win: Memoirs Of A Geisha
Should Win: King Kong

- I read somewhere recently the opinion that Memoirs Of A Geisha is tacky, and I'm in agreement.

Its beautiful facade is cheapened by the dollar-store ingenuity behind the storytelling and presentation. Were its exaggerations and moments of implausibility intended, Memoirs might have been a fashionable fantasy (like King Kong or something from Fellini), but it was intended to be serious - a prestige picture with sights set on Oscar domination. Well, here we are at Oscar time and Memoirs leads in technical nominations, so the job was halfway successful from this point of view.

In this category you can expect it to win; the film is no doubt pretty to behold, so much so that it will dupe most unsuspecting audiences who are attracted to such a film so they can lay false claim to "knowing Asia." However, my choice would be for King Kong, which is a pleasure throughout, lovingly crafted to evoke the nostalgic glitz and glamour of the '30s Big Apple and the haunting yet lush mood of the jungle-ridden Skull Island. Of the other nominees, none stand out so much as Kong (Good Night, And Good Luck.

owes most of its visual appeal to its crisp cinematography and not its art direction).

Best Achievement In Costume Design
- Charlie And The Chocolate Factory (2005) - Gabriella Pescucci
- Memoirs Of A Geisha (2005) - Colleen Atwood
- Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005) - Sandy Powell
- Pride Prejudice (2005) - Jacqueline Durran
- Walk The Line (2005) - Arianne Phillips

Will Win: Memoirs Of A Geisha
Should Win: Memoirs Of A Geisha

- The folks behind Memoirs Of A Geisha obviously put more effort into making the film look authentically Japanese than into having it come across as authentically human and meaningful (hence the oft-touted 6 nominations which are all in technical categories).

Memoirs was a good try at doing Japan aesthetically, and much of its success is due to the lavish costumes - of which some 250+ kimonos were hand-made and embroidered. They look stunning, and without the very detailed garb the film would have more readily been recognized as the emperor (empress?) having no clothes.

Of course, that title is expressly reserved for Mrs Henderson Presents, which lays bare its women as plainly as it does its shamelessness. What costumes it does use are of little consequence or importance. The other nominees are all fine, but none so much as Memoirs this year.



Best Achievement In Music Written For Motion Pictures, Original Score
- Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Gustavo Santaolalla
- The Constant Gardener (2005) - Alberto Iglesias
- Memoirs Of A Geisha (2005) - John Williams
- Munich (2005) - John Williams
- Pride Prejudice (2005) - Dario Marianelli

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: The Constant Gardener

- John Williams's double-dip is no match for the stripped-down simplicity of Gustavo Santaolalla's Brokeback Mountain score. Its plaintive minimalism has been confused for lack of depth or meaning, but I admire it for its restrained passion which evokes the remembered beauty and the enduring frustration and sadness that characters Ennis Del Mar and Jack Twist live and breathe. Memoirs Of A Geisha's score, like the film itself, is an inauthentic oriental concoction that is pretty on the surface but empty underneath.

Munich's score suffers from being unmemorable. Dario Marianelli's Pride score isn't even a contender. Really, the only competition for Brokeback's score is Alberto Iglesias's work for The Constant Gardener.

Considering the breadth of support for Brokeback, I'm betting that Santaolalla is taking home the Oscar, although I'm particular to Iglesias's score which throbs and pulsates with the urgency and intensity of the film's troubled protagonist as he investigates the mysterious circumstances of his wife's death while working in Kenya. It's a close call, and I won't be displeased if Santaolalla wins, but my vote is for Iglesias.

Best Achievement In Music Written For Motion Pictures, Original Song
- Hustle Flow (2005) - Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, Paul Beauregard ("It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp")
- Crash (2004) - Michael Becker, Kathleen York ("In The Deep")
- Transamerica (2005) - Dolly Parton ("Travelin' Thru")

Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Hustle Flow

- It's hard out here for a pimp when you're vying for an Oscar against the odds.

Sure, Eminem may have broken the rap cherry with "Lose Yourself" from 8 Mile a few years back, but I'm not sure rap's second coming in Hollywood is competition for the other two nominees. The contest is between Dolly Parton's generic ditty and newcomer Bird York's delicate aural slush. "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" lacks the mass appeal that the Academy believes should be characteristic of a winner, expressly because its content is of the Parental Advisory nature.

While Dolly's entry isn't half as good as her iconic "9 To 5" which lost over twenty years ago, it's suited to its film and is catchy. However, factor in the sudden show of love for Crash and you have your winner in Bird York. Her song really is pretty similar in nature to "Pimp," though.

Both are about impossible situations its characters feel trapped by. However, her song is all phoney posturing. It's too numb and pretty to be really involving.

"Pimp" is seething with anger and pain, at once embodying Hustle Flow's theme of art-as-transformation optimism and articulating its desire to break out of the despair that Bird York's song seems content to gaze at helplessly. But then again, isn't privileged America content to gaze helplessly at its social problems?

Best Achievement In Makeup
- The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe (2005) - Howard Berger, Tami Lane
- Cinderella Man (2005) - David LeRoy Anderson, Lance Anderson
- Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge Of The Sith (2005) - Dave Elsey, Annette Miles

Will Win: The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
Should Win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge Of The Sith

- No, ladies and gentlemen, Tilda Swinton really does look pretty much like the Ice Queen.

Narnia is the favourite here, if only because Star Wars seems to be an object of some scorn this year out (see the nominees for Visual Effects). But honestly, Star Wars relies heavily upon its gifted makeup crew for its look, which is very other-worldly and fantastic beyond anything in Narnia. I'd like to see it get recognized, but I fear that it'll be the Chronic-WHAT?

!-cles Of Narnia's token nod (personally, I thought the SNL parody was even more honour than this middlebrow film deserved).

Best Achievement In Sound
- The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2005) - Terry Porter, Dean A.

Zupancic, Tony Johnson
- King Kong (2005) - Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek
- Memoirs Of A Geisha (2005) - Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline, John Pritchett
- Walk The Line (2005) - Paul Massey, Doug Hemphill, Peter F. Kurland
- War Of The Worlds (2005) - Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ron Judkins

Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: Walk The Line

- I really am not much of an expert on sound mixing and cannot determine which film was better mixed than the other.

But strictly considering which film's sound left the greatest impression on me after having watched each of the nominees, I'm opting for Walk The Line. I admired the use of sound in the musically-themed film; from the very beginning, the pulsating beat has a compelling energy symbolic almost of singer Johnny Cash's enduring ambition and anxiety. King Kong, however, is the epic film here and is going to edge out the other nominees for its own deft use of sound to augment the visual thrills.

It's certainly the least subtle of the bunch, but the Academy will favour it as part of a package deal in recognizing the power of King Kong as a whole.

Best Achievement In Sound Editing
- King Kong (2005) - Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn
- Memoirs Of A Geisha (2005) - Wylie Stateman
- War Of The Worlds (2005) - Richard King

Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: War Of The Worlds

- Was there any more seriously disconcerting sound in cinemas this year than the mechanized alien tripods' marrow-melting siren in War Of The Worlds? The sound effects in War Of The Worlds really enhanced the gloom and foreboding dread, imbuing each scene with a horrific prescience.

King Kong's effects, by comparison, didn't contribute to the mood and atmosphere of the film or play on the audience's emotions quite like War Of The Worlds. But, pound-for-pound King Kong is bigger, longer and louder, and its sound effects are not totally without merit. I'm thinking that the Academy will elect team gorilla this time out.

As for Memoirs Of A Geisha, I could have watched that film on mute and it still would have sucked.

Best Achievement In Visual Effects
- The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe (2005) - Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney, Scott Farrar
- King Kong (2005) - Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor
- War Of The Worlds (2005) - Pablo Helman, Dennis Muren, Randy Dutra, Daniel Sudick

Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong

- Plainly and truly, Andy Serkis deserved a Best Actor nomination for his role as the man behind Kong's expressive nuances in King Kong. Without his energy and enthusiasm, Kong might not have come as alive as he did.

Despite Serkis' effort and considerable research into the habits and behaviours of gorillas, a Best Actor nomination would portend future nominations for digitally animated characters - something Hollywood's flesh-and-blood actors are just not ready to accept. So, look to see King Kong recognized here. War Of The Worlds is the only true competition the film has, namely for the remarkable and awesome 9/11-ish alien invasion that opens the film.

The Chronicles Of Narnia is just a cruel joke; cruel because it was nominated in place of the infinitely more deserving Star Wars: Episode III - curiously snubbed here, and a joke because its effects are wholly unconvincing and pedestrian.

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
- Corpse Bride (2005) - Tim Burton, Mike Johnson
- Howl's Moving Castle (2004) - Hayao Miyazaki
- Wallace Gromit In The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit (2005) - Steve Box, Nick Park

Will Win: Wallace Gromit In The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit
Should Win: Wallace Gromit In The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit

- Hayao Miyazaki may have snagged the Academy's first-ever Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film a few years back for Spirited Away, but Howl's Moving Castle was considerably dry and drained of energy. In another year it might have still stood a chance, but this year sees the first feature-length Wallace Gromit film which is faithful to the whimsy and charm that kept winning creator Nick Park all those Animated Short Film Oscars during the '90s.

Its good-natured anti-technology yarn is affirmative, fine entertainment. Corpse Bride is the typically soulless and flashy dreck one has sadly come to expect from Tim Burton, whose latest stop-motion piece is a far cry from his crown jewel, The Nightmare Before Christmas. Still, we should be thankful that it was nominated in place of the disastrous hunk of garbage that was Chicken Little - an act of uncharacteristic sanity in this field (remember Shark Tale and Jimmy Neutron?

) for which the Academy ought to win their own Oscar.

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
- The Beast In The Heart (2005) - Cristina Comencini (Italy)
- Merry Christmas (2005) - Christian Carion (France)
- Paradise Now (2005) - Hany Abu-Assad (Palestine)
- Sophie Scholl - Die letzten Tage (2005) - Marc Rothemund (Germany)
- Tsotsi (2005) - Gavin Hood (South Africa)

Will Win: Paradise Now
Should Win: N/A

- This is a contest between two films, the way I see it. Paradise Now, recent winner at the Golden Globes, is a front-runner for its topicality (a sympathetic look at the life of two suicide bomber recruits), while Tsotsi is being pushed by Miramax, notorious for spending megabucks to promote their films to Academy voters.

Its story of difficult choices and redemption in the streets of Johannesburg sounds like it could be either contrived humanism or compelling and poignant drama. In the end, the sensitivity ascribed to Paradise Now is going to translate to liberal sensitivity if the Academy awards the Oscar to Palestine, especially considering its recognition of Steven Spielberg's Munich in some of the major categories. Note: not having seen any of the nominated films, I am again unable to select which film I believe should win.



Best Documentary, Features
- Darwin's Nightmare (2004) - Hubert Sauper
- Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room (2005) - Alex Gibney, Jason Kliot
- March Of The Penguins (2005) - Luc Jacquet, Yves Darondeau
- Murderball (2005) - Henry Alex Rubin, Dana Adam Shapiro
- Street Fight (2005) - Marshall Curry

Will Win: March Of The Penguins
Should Win: N/A

- Americans fell in love with the family values of a cast of penguins populating their own island paradise. March Of The Penguins was the most successful documentary at the box office this year, and one of the highest-grossing documentaries of all-time. It will be a tough one to beat come voting time.

However, not having seen anything except the exceptionally heartfelt and insightful Murderball, I'm unqualified to determine which film should win the award. Darwin's Nightmare and Enron are popular critics' choices which I'm sure I would find much to acclaim, though I am a sucker for a well-dressed company of waddlers.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
- God Sleeps In Rwanda (2005) - Kimberlee Acquaro, Stacy Sherman
- A Note Of Triumph: The Golden Age Of Norman Corwin (2005) - Corinne Marrinan, Eric Simonson
- The Life Of Kevin Carter (2004) - Dan Krauss
- The Mushroom Club (2005) - Steven Okazaki

Will Win: God Sleeps In Rwanda
Should Win: N/A

- Not having seen any of the nominees, any prediction I make is going to be ill-informed, but I shall try my best.

A Note Of Triumph sounds like the sort of encomium to journalistic excellence the Academy likes to reward (just look at Good Night, And Good Luck.). It even features Robert Altman chiming in, who - for those who aren't aware - is also receiving the Academy's award for Lifetime Achievement.

Yet, God Sleeps In Rwanda is the sort of globally-conscious expose the Academy could vote for. For all intents and purposes, the Academy regards itself as liberal and forward-thinking, and it would certain look good to vote for it. And you know what?

I think they will.

Best Short Film, Animated
- Badgered (2005) - Sharon Colman
- The Moon And The Son (2005) - John Canemaker, Peggy Stern
- The Mysterious Geographic Explorations Of Jasper Morello (2005) - Anthony Lucas
- 9 (2005) - Shane Acker
- One Man Band (2005) - Mark Andrews, Andrew Jimenez

Will Win: The Moon And The Son
Should Win: N/A

- Again, I've not seen any of these entries. One Man Band is a Pixar film, so that is a strong pedigree to contend with (they previously won Oscars for Tin Toy and Geri's Game).

However, it doesn't appear to have the emotional heft of the biographical The Moon And The Son. After last year's win for the personal and profound Ryan, the award could go to this one. If not, the only other contender is 'Jasper Morello,' which boasts a stunning gothic/sci-fi look.

Both of the others are too cutesy and dated by the sounds of things. I could be wrong, but for the amount of intellectual and technical effort it apparently contains, I'm voting for The Moon And The Son.

Best Short Film, Live Action
- Ausreiber (2004) - Ulrike Grote
- Cashback (2004) - Sean Ellis, Lene Bausager
- Sioasti baerinn i dalnum (2004) - Runar Runarsson, Porir Snaer Sigurjonsson
- Our Time Is Up (2004) - Rob Pearlstein, Pia Clemente
- Six Shooter (2005) - Martin McDonagh

Will Win: Six Shooter
Should Win: N/A

- This is always a tricky category because live action short films are widely unavailable to the non-film festival-going person.

The only one I've seen is Cashback which is misguided pretentious poseur juvenilia. Of the bunch, the already prize-winning Six Shooter has the most attractive premise; it's an Irish black comedy that is happily violent. Considering the Academy's penchant for UK entries (last year's winner - Wasp - was from the UK), I'm betting on this one - although I readily admit I could be wrong.


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Keywords: Brokeback Mountain, Constant Gardener, George Clooney, Hustle Flow, Star Wars, Paul Haggis, Amy Adams, Steven Spielberg, Brokeback Mountainshould, Rachel Weisz
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