Perhaps the most salient thing to note is that 59% of likely voters in this sample were white, and just 36% Hispanic. (Hispanics favored Democrats heavily this year, so a high Hispanic turnout is key for Rodriguez.) Meanwhile, that district is 55% Hispanic and 41% white.
The sample isn't implausible, though. Latino voting-age population (VAP) tends to be lower than the white VAP, and the registered voting-age population (RVAP) lower still. Moreover, , Latinos comprised almost 35% of the state's population in 2004.
However, in the Texas gubernatorial and senate races say that Latinos made up only 15% of those who went to the voting booth on election day. If the exit polls are accurate, then only some 43% of Hispanics statewide turned out to vote. If the SUSA sample is right, then Hispanics are showing up at a 65% clip.
That's quite an improvement - but it looks like it may not be enough. Don't forget that despite the big changes redistricting wrought here, the new 23rd CD went for Bush by a hefty 57-43 margin in 2004 (it had been 64-35 - though I should note that Al Gore only lost by about 7 points). So I really don't know if Ciro can do much better among Latinos than he's already doing.
However, he could still pull it off if he can increase his margin among independents (who favor him by just three points). And if you're outside of the district and want to help, the best thing you can do is sign up for . if SUSA conducts interviews in Spanish as well as English?
With 1/3 of the CD claiming Hispanic heritage, the language of the interview and the response rate are very important. The language issue should be obvious, and the response rate can go a long way to telling us whether large numbers of people didn't answer the survey because the call started in English. In either case you could get a skew.
Hispanics seem to be falling into the same immigrant group modality that marked the Irish, Italians, and Poles before the fully assimilated. But it isn't that simple, because I've seen surveys before that indicate first generation migrants, people who've themselves are immigrants are substantially more conservative than their children. But I have to wonder once we get out to the 3-4 generation whether the group effect wears off as people begin to speak English exclusively, and move out of ethnic enclaves into more diverse neighborhoods.
All of this has important implications for the future. As hispanics assimilate, and as many begin to attend protestant churches will the group effect wear off?
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