East Africa: East African Federation: On Fast Track or Fatal Track? [column]

Omar D. Kalinge-Nnyago
Kampala
On October 13, 2006 president Museveni launched the national consultative process for the fast tracking of the East African political federation. In a speech that sounded more like a lecture in Political Economy 101, than a strategic document, president Museveni labored at length to justify the need for federation but failed to mention, even in passing, the possible reasons why East Africans may need to be persuaded further to federate.

The matter of the federation is the subject of a vibrant ongoing process of soul searching. It could go either way. East Africans may decide not to quickly federate after all.

In Dar es Salaam , President Kikwete simultaneously launched the exercise against a back drop of looming intense opposition from Tanzanians who expressed dismay at president Museveni's recent remarks at a recent radio talk show that he would only relinquish power once the federation came on stream. The Tanzanians' anger was expressed after the immense exposure that the president's remarks received. That Friday, according to the Pan African News Agency, the remarks were given front page coverage in some local dailies, thus stirring even more outrage in Tanzania .

The Tanzanians are incensed by the perception that the Ugandan leader of twenty years has embarked on premature campaigns for the regional presidency in 2010 when the region becomes a single political entity. Should the public give the process a nod, EAC will become a common market in 2008, have a common currency in 2009 and become a federation on rotational basis in 2010. The longest serving president at the time will be given the mantle to lead first.

The democratic elections are planned for 2013 after the presidency will have rotated in the three countries for one year each. This should explain why president Museveni has hinted on relinquishing the presidency in 2013 to become East Africa's first president, there would never be another leader in an independent Uganda . Museveni is determined to become the longest serving and Uganda 's last president.

This could also be why he does not want to 'waste' his time discussing his succession.
Beyond the schemes there are also other truths that have not been told. The idea of fast tracking the EA Federation was mooted by Hon.

Mugisha Muntu on January 25, 2002. His motion in the EA parliament to set up a committee to fast track the federation was unanimously passed, and the committee embarked on its work. In June 2002, it presented an interim report, which the house adopted.

The committee was forced to abandon its work because Uganda 's then minister of finance said he had no money for the item in the budget. Since decisions were by consensus, Kenya and Tanzania could not do much. The idea of fast tracking was suspended.

In late 2004, in the run up to the presidential elections of 2006 the idea of fast-tracking the federation became an urgent issue, not for the real purpose of it, but for politicking. It was then presented as a new idea, having been crippled earlier by Uganda herself.
According to Hon.

Wandera Ogalo, in a January 2006 article in the media, when Uganda 's parliament passed the obnoxious third term amendment, the Tanzanian parliament raised concerns about the emerging dictatorship in Uganda . In response, president Museveni chose to tell Tanzania MPs to stop interfering in Uganda 's internal affairs. So, the president had sown the seeds of mistrust and came out as arrogant and not particularly respectful of other East African views.

Ordinary Kenyans have a slightly different problem with Uganda 's leader. They see him as a war-monger who is likely to use the tremendous resources that would be at his disposal in a federated East Africa to open more war fronts in the region. There are even concerns of the civil war in Northern Uganda .

According to Kenya 's political commentator A.Wandati, Kenyans would be wary of squandering their resources on a civil war in one of the confederates. He is of the view that the EA Federation cannot and should not be effected before the condition of the total peace in Uganda is met.

This could perhaps explain why Museveni seems to be taking the Juba peace talks rather seriously this time, deciding to even personally fly to Juba . Plausible move, but again, selfish. He just would not want Kony to stand between him and the EA presidency.

Ugandans are also not so enthusiastic about a federation tied to the ambition of one man. Many would find it agonising to have a president of 27 years (by 2013), rule them further under a new arrangement . Ugandans too are the odd lot in the region.

Both Kenya and Tanzania are Swahili speaking. Uganda is struggling to implement its Swahili policy. Ugandans do not have a national Identity Card, and are therefore a risk to the region's security.

While free movement of persons of East Africa is crucial to federation, it cannot be achieved without settling the question of identity. Any African, could pass through Uganda , start living in Tanzania and claim to be Ugandan, for, a Ugandan is not identifiable.
For the East African Federation to hold, it may be necessary that the Northern War in Uganda is ended, National Identity Cards are issued and President Museveni is democratically replaced by another leader.

It was Mwinyi, Mkapa, Moi and Museveni, popularly known as the 4Ms who resurrected the idea of the federation. The three are already retired. One is still precariously holding on to power, to the dismay of the whole region.

Perhaps Museveni's lasting contribution to the federation would be to de-link himself from the outcome and step aside long before 2010 to save the federation from the fatal track it seems to be taking instead of the fast track Mugisha Muntu intended. Then East Africans will have very little else to discuss.

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