Win, lose or shafted: Handicapping the Grammys

More than 16,000 members of the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences vote on the Grammy Awards each year. The academy says it's out to reward "artistic excellence" regardless of sales or chart position, but rarely does it go out of its way to recognize up-and-coming talent that doesn't move big numbers.
Tonight, when Grammys will be handed out in a record 108 categories and you're left wondering if there's anything better out there, here's your guide to the music you really ought to hear.

Who will win: Vindication for the Dixie Chicks, who survived a potentially career-killing controversy to make their most personal, pop-flavored album.
Who should win: Gnarls Barkley's thrillingly melodic "St. Elsewhere.

"
Who got shafted: One of the year's most widely lauded discs, TV on the Radio's "Return to Cookie Mountain."
Award goes to the artist and the producer, recording engineer and/or mixer.
Nominees: "Be Without You," Mary J.

Blige; "You're Beautiful," James Blunt; "Not Ready to Make Nice," Dixie Chicks; "Crazy," Gnarls Barkley; "Put Your Records On," Corinne Bailey Rae
Who will win: If "Crazy" doesn't win, the academy is indeed nuts.
Who should win: "Crazy" was the song by which we'll remember the summer of '06.
Who got shafted: Lupe Fiasco's instant skateboard classic, "Kick, Push.

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Nominees: "Be Without You," Johnta Austin, Mary J. Blige, Bryan-Michael Cox, Jason Perry (performed by Blige); "Jesus Take the Wheel," Brett James, Hillary Lindsey and Gordie Sampson (performed by Carrie Underwood); "Not Ready to Make Nice," Martie Maguire, Natalie Maines, Emily Robison and Dan Wilson (performed by Dixie Chicks); "Put Your Records On," John Beck, Steve Chrisanthou and Corinne Bailey Rae (performed by Rae); "You're Beautiful," James Blunt, Amanda Ghost and Sacha Skarbek (performed by Blunt)
Who will win: Mary J. Blige should get at least one major award, and this will be her best shot.

Who should win: "Not Ready to Make Nice" put some teeth in the Chicks' pop-country sound.
Who got shafted: Lily Allen's "Smile" and "LDN" were deservedly huge Internet hits.
Nominees: "Back to Basics," Christina Aguilera; "Back to Bedlam," James Blunt; "The River in Reverse," Elvis Costello and Allen Toussaint; "Continuum," John Mayer; "FutureSex/LoveSounds," Justin Timberlake
Who will win: Timberlake's star power should trump the New Orleans vote for the fine but under-selling Costello-Toussaint collaboration.

Who should win: Timberlake is maturing into an artist to be reckoned with.
Who got shafted: Nelly Furtado's "Loose" and its mega-hits "Promiscuous" and "Maneater."
Who should win: Petty's "Highway Companion" is one of the best albums of his career.

Who got shafted: Mission of Burma's "The Obliterati" outrocks them all.
Nominees: "Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not," Arctic Monkeys; "At War with the Mystics," the Flaming Lips; "St. Elsewhere," Gnarls Barkley; "Show Your Bones," Yeah Yeah Yeahs; "The Eraser," Thom Yorke
Who should win: Gnarls all the way.

Who got shafted: Art Brut's "Bang Bang Rock Roll."
Nominees: "B-Day," Beyonce; "Chris Brown," Chris Brown; "20 Y.O.

," Janet Jackson; "Kelis Was Here," Kelis; "In My Own Words," Ne-Yo
Who will win: Beyonce's star power and sales will prevail.
Who should win: Kelis continues to take more musical chances than any other mainstream R B singer.
Nominees: "Lupe Fiasco's Food and Liquor," Lupe Fiasco; "Release Therapy," Ludacris; "In My Mind," Pharrell; "Game Theory," the Roots; "King," T.

I.
Who will win: T.I.

's "King" was the year's biggest-selling hip-hop release.
Who should win: Lupe Fiasco, who stretched hip-hop's borders with his skateboard nerd persona.
Who got shafted: Ghostface Killah's "Fishscale.