During a speech at the National Press Club last fall, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) declared that Democrats were well positioned and poised to make large gains on Election Day.
Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.
), then chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, countered Van Hollen s assertions with what had become his mantra in the 2005-2006 cycle: All politics is local. He also added, daringly if not prophetically, that Republicans would retain the lower chamber.
But more interesting than what they said was the way they looked.
Reynolds was sweating profusely while Van Hollen was bone-dry. It was like many a political ad best understood when you turn off the soundtrack and focus on the visuals.
Van Hollen, that day, was filling in for his boss at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.
). Now, however, he runs the committee, having stepped into Emanuel s shoes after the Nov. 7 victory.
They are big shoes to fill. Emanuel helped win control of the House; now Van Hollen s job is to maintain or expand it.
It won t be easy.
There are 61 House Democrats who hail from districts won by President Bush in 2000 and 2004. Yet unless there is a huge political wave, it s a good bet that more than 95 percent of incumbents win reelection. And while both parties constantly worry about retirements, Republicans are clearly more worried.
Emanuel and Van Hollen worked closely together last year, but they have vastly different styles. Emanuel likes to curse a lot; Van Hollen does not. Emanuel clashed repeatedly with Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Howard Dean; the first thing Van Hollen did was reach out to Dean to improve relations between their committees.
Like Emanuel, Van Hollen will be judged on one thing: winning. He is a shrewd politician, as was demonstrated in 2002 when he won a hard-fought Democratic primary and then bested Rep. Connie Morella (R-Md.
).
During an interview with The Hill last week, Van Hollen made it clear that he is targeting incumbent Republicans who have ethical questions surrounding them. But he also stressed that it s a different cycle and Democrats will do much more to retain their freshmen.
In 2006, not one Democratic incumbent lost. That is unlikely to happen again next year.
Nevertheless, there is a sense among some Democrats that the 2006 themes Iraq and ethics will once again resonate in 2008.
Van Hollen noted, however, this is a presidential cycle and that changes his game plan.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.
), as minority leader last year, said getting a congressional message out during a presidential cycle is extremely challenging. Now that Democrats are in the majority, that task will be easier, but not easy.
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