The history of Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein has been full of fake turning-points - the capture of Saddam in 2003, the supposed handover of sovereignty to Iraqis in 2004, the parliamentary elections and referendum in 2005.
All these events were greeted by the White House and Downing Street at the time as important and encouraging signs of progress, justifying the invasion of 2003. But with every year the war has become more intense.
Iraqis are now dying at the rate of about 1,000 a week, according to the UN. Civil war is raging in central Iraq. The war against the US soldiers has also escalated, though American casualties are far lower.
The country is awash with blood.
There were two real turning-points of very different kinds in Iraq in 2006: the blowing up of the Shia al-Askari shrine in Samarra on 22 February; and the Republican defeat in the US mid-term elections, in which Iraq was the main issue, on 7 November. The first was the starting gun for the present sectarian bloodbath.
The second also had a vast effect within Iraq as the US began to contemplate failure.
In Samarra, nobody was killed by the explosion itself, though it wrecked the great golden dome of the shrine. But the attack led to a Shia onslaught on Sunni Arabs.
Shia restraint, already close to breaking point, finally gave way after more than two years of bombs aimed at army and police recruits, who were mostly Shia, as well as at purely civilian targets. Within days, 1,300 people, mostly Sunni, were dead. People caught in the wrong areas at the wrong time were dragged from their cars and slaughtered.
Amid this bloodbath, it is difficult to pick out long-term trends. However, several were clearly visible in 2006:
* There is civil war between Shia and Sunni in central Iraq, and it is getting worse by the day. The most important battle is for control of Baghdad.
* The US is becoming weaker in Iraq because of its evident failure to gain control of the country, and because of the Republicans' defeat in the mid-term elections. The number of Americans who support continuing the war is decreasing.
* The US tried, under its astute and affable envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, to conciliate the Sunni by offering them positions in government, limiting provisions in the constitution they disliked and seeking to talk to the insurgents.
The strategy shows little sign of working, and Khalilzad's star is waning.
* The Shia, never comfortable with the US-led forces but prepared to work with the US for their own ends, are increasingly hostile to the occupation. The percentage of Shia who agree with armed attacks on US-led forces rose from 41 per cent to 62 per cent in the first nine months of 2006.
* The US is considering negotiations with Iran and Syria, though this would be a confession of weakness. It also knows that they would look for concessions, such as a US withdrawal and an increase in their regional influence. Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are increasingly worried by Shia successes in Iraq and Lebanon.
* The Kurds are losing confidence that Iraq will hold together, though they do not want to be blamed for it coming apart. Kurdistan is the only peaceful part of Iraq.
* The militias grew stronger during the year because the army and police cannot provide security.
Iraq is disintegrating. In areas where there was a mixed population - above all in Baghdad itself - there have been mass killings. After the Samarra bomb, the capital began to divide up into hostile districts, each protected by its own militiamen.
The militias themselves became stronger as everybody wanted armed men they could trust at the end of their street. Shia and Sunni families - whichever was in a minority - received letters, often enclosing bullets, telling them to move within 24 hours or be killed. Few dared to stay.
By the end of the year, the UN High Commission for Refugees estimated that 1.6 million Iraqis had fled within the country and another 1.8 million had gone abroad, mostly to Jordan and Syria.
At one point, an estimated 1,000 people a day were crossing the border into Jordan and a further 2,000 a day into Syria.
Inside Baghdad, it is the Shia who are advancing, using their superior numbers. Sunni are being pushed back into the south and west of the city.
But in the furthest outskirts, in dusty towns that were once mixed, the Sunni are on the attack. There is brutal fighting in towns such as Balad, one of the few places with a Shia majority north of Baghdad, and Mahmudiyah, on the main road to the south. The Sunni are increasingly in a position to encircle Baghdad.
The US troops are largely bystanders in this ferocious civil war. Where they do intervene it is usually to defend the Sunni, angering the Shia. It is a nasty feature of present-day Iraqi politics that Sunni, Shia and Kurds all see themselves as victims and have little sympathy for or knowledge of the woes of others.
In conversation, they tell of atrocities committed against their own community but scarcely mention the killings perpetrated by their own militias and gunmen. Shia describe their Sunni opponents as "Wahabis" and cat's-paws of Saudi Arabia, while Sunni view Iraqi Shia as pawns of Iran.
What options are open to the US?
It could reinforce its troops with 20,000 to 30,000 more men, but these numbers add little security in a city the size of Baghdad. It could pull back to its bases, prepared to intervene in support of Iraqi government forces. But these bases depend on vulnerable supply lines.
It could pick a fight with the militias, notably the Mehdi army of Muqtada al-Sadr, as it did before in 2004 - it would win militarily, but it cannot eliminate the Sadrists because they are too numerous and too popular. Negotiations are unlikely to succeed that do not have at their centre an agreement for a timetable for US and British withdrawal. It is their presence in Iraq that is destabilising the region.
Their departure should also be unambiguous, with no American bases established inside Iraq.
The US and Britain have argued that this would lead to the Iraqi government unwinding, and would embolden the insurgents. But both these processes are going on already.
Sunni resistance to the occupation has created a sympathetic environment for al-Qa'ida-type organisations to flourish in central Iraq. The longer the war goes on, the more entrenched the fanatical Islamic groups will become.
The last justification for keeping US troops in Iraq was that "at least they prevent civil war", but they are failing to do so.
It might be useful to have foreign forces acceptable to both sides, but the US and British occupiers do not, in the eyes of Iraqis, have the legitimacy to act as mediators.
The coming year is likely to see the battle for Baghdad intensify. Iraq will probably continue to exist, but as a loose federal state.
The Kurds always wanted this; indeed, they would like independence if they dared to take it, but they fear the reaction of Turkey, Iran and Syria.
After the horrors of this year, Sunni and Shia will hardly be able to co-operate closely in future. The sense of Iraqi identity may have been damaged beyond repair.
But, more than most states, Iraq is dominated by its capital and Shia and Sunni will continue to fight to rule Baghdad until they either win or know there is no hope of victory.
THE HORN OF AFRICA WAR DRAWS CLOSER
ETHIOPIAN JETS HIT TARGETS IN SOMALIA AS THOUSANDS OF FOREIGN JIHADISTS POUR IN
ETHIOPIA'S PRIME MINISTER DECLARES WAR ON SOMALI ISLAMISTS
Less than two weeks ago, the prime minister of Ethiopia declared that his country had finished preparations for war with the Islamic Courts now controlling most of neighbouring Somalia.
This followed the meteoric rise of the Islamist movement in Somalia, where in less than eight months they have seized control of the Somali capital Mogadishu, taken control of key port cities and facilities and have surrounded the small town where the US-backed interim government is biding its time, protected by troops from Ethiopia.
Where this has the looming potential for all out war across the Horn of Africa is that Somali neighbour Eritrea has sent its own troops in to back the Islamists. Eritrea and Ethiopia have long regarded each other as hostile enemies.
Ethiopia, meanwhile, regards the presence of the Islamic Courts in Somalia as a "clear and present danger" and they fear not moving fast enough to stop the spread of the Islamists control and influence.
Ethiopia is a majority Christian country, but there are still millions of Muslims living peacefully, for the most part, as a quiet minority. Ethiopia fears what may happen if the Islamists can rally support amongst Ethiopian Muslims. Ironically, that will be far easier to do if Ethiopia launches a full-scale war against Muslims in Somalia.
The United States, meanwhile, backs Ethiopia, claims the Islamic Courts are actually Al Qaeda, and is preparing to deploy an African force, as well as establishing an Africa Command.
Yesterday and today, Ethopia launched jet fighter attacks against what it said were Islamist positions. Ethiopians tanks and attack helicopters have now entered Somalia.
Ethiopian forces defending Somalia's weak interim government have launched airstrikes against Islamist fighters in an escalation of a conflict that threatens to engulf the Horn of Africa. It was the first use of airstrikes and Ethiopia's first public admission of its military involvement in Somalia, whose government is surrounded by fighters of the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC) backed by mortars and machineguns.
"After too much patience, the Ethiopian government has taken self-defensive measures and started counter-attacking the aggressive extremist forces of the Islamic Courts and foreign terrorist groups," Berhan told Reuters, saying "anti-Ethiopian" elements had massed along the border.
Both sides have rained rockets, mortars and machinegun fire across several parts of a slim frontline near Baidoa. Amid the explosions, pick-up trucks armed with heavy weapons have ferried supplies forward and collected the injured.
Dressed in a ragtag of fatigues, the men sped off in camouflage-painted trucks to the chants of "Victory is ours".
Further north in Mogadishu, scores of women and children gathered in one of the main markets to badger men walking along the streets to join the war.
"They told me to wear their clothes if I will not go to war," said Abdi Rashid. "They said I'm not a man, because all men are on the frontline, so I should wear women's clothes."
Military experts estimate Ethiopia has 15,000-20,000 troops in Somalia, while Eritrea has about 2,000 behind the Islamists.
The conflict kicked into a higher, more deadlier, gear less than two weeks ago, when the Ethiopian prime minister with Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts. The Islamists, for now, control the Somali capital Mogadishu, key port cities and most of the southern and central regions of the country.
The US-backed Somali transitional government is now holed up the small town of Baidoa, where they beg for help from Ethiopia and the West, while Islamists train mortars and machine guns on the government compound.
The United States quickly announced it would support a deployment of African troops into Somalia to protect the government from Islamists. The US accuses the Islamic Courts of being in league with Al Qaeda, a charge the Islamists regard as a fiction, and more US propaganda.
Some background on the conflict, and how it became a reality of 'The Fourth World War.'
The major problem for the United States and Ethiopia right now is that the Islamic Courts are not altogether unpopular with Somalis, who utterly despised the warlords that ruled and destroyed their nation for more than a decade.
Somalia lost its central government in 1991 when tribal warlords toppled former president Mohammed Siad Barre. Peace talks in the Sudanese capital Khartoum have ended in failure early this month after Islamic Courts demanded that all Ethiopian forces in the country leave.
The Islamists have chased out most of these warlords, and the locals are happy. They're not so happy about the introduction of Islamist Sharia Law, but from the wealth of media coming out of Somalia and Ethiopia, it appears just how hardcore the Sharia Law in use depends on where you live in Somalia.
In some towns the local clerics don't allow music and dancing or uncovered women, but in other villages the rules are far more lax.
That the United States ended up backing Somali warlords against the Islamists is yet another ironic shock, considering it was some of these very same warlords who killed, or helped to kill, almost two dozen American special forces officers during the infamous 'Black Hawk Down' raids on Mogadishu in the early 1990s.
Why does this conflict between Ethiopia and the Islamists in Somalia have such potential to become a full-blown war stretching across the Horn of Africa?
The Horn of Africa, one of the world s most volatile regions, edged closer to war today after Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, said that his country had completed preparations to take on a powerful Islamic alliance in neighbouring Somalia.The following story, is a few weeks old, but it hits some of the same key points about why this conflict has the potential to spill out across the Horn of Africa :
Mr Zenawi told the Ethiopian parliament that the Islamists presented a "clear and present danger" to Ethiopia, whose main regional foe Eritrea was arming them.
He said that attempts to settle the crisis through dialogue and negotiation had proved fruitless.
The Islamists, who now control most of Somalia, later met in emergency session in the capital, Mogadishu, and vowed to defend the country against a "reckless and war-thirsty" Ethiopia.
However, at the same time the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia, a coalition of 11 Islamic organisations that wrested power earlier this year from local warlords, invited Washington to send an official delegation to Mogadishu for talks.
Council spokesman Abdurahim Muddey said: "We are inviting the United States to send a delegation to see what is happening in Somalia... The US delegation will be received by our foreign relations chief, Ibrahim Hassan Addow, who is himself an American citizen.
"
The United States has accused the Islamists of links to al-Qaeda and encouraged Ethiopia to send 5,000 troops to support a rump government based in the border town of Baidoa.
The Islamists supreme leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, has been designated a "terrorist" by the US, which earlier this month warned that Somali extremists may be plotting suicide attacks in Kenya and Ethiopia.
Intelligence sources say Washington has indicated to Ethiopia that it would not oppose a military operation to remove the Islamists, but regional experts say such an action would ignite the entire region.
Eritrea and Ethiopia fought a devastating border war in 1998-2000 and have several unresolved border disputes.
It is feared both would soon be directly embroiled in any fresh conflict.
Washington previously ran a covert operation to support Somali warlords fighting the Islamists for control of Mogadishu that collapsed in June when the city fell.
The warlords carved up Somalia in 1991 after the Cold War dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre, was overthrown and since then has known nothing but anarchy.
Ethiopia acknowledges sending military advisers to Somalia, although Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has threatened to send tens of thousands of troops across the border if the Council of Islamic Courts attacks.And so, then, how to avoid such a war becoming a reality?
Experts have warned that Somalia has become a proxy battleground for Somalia's neighbors, Eritrea and Ethiopia.A recent confidential U.N. report said 6,000 to 8,000 Ethiopian troops were inside Somalia or near its border with Ethiopia, backing the interim government.
The report also said 2,000 troops from Eritrea were inside Somalia supporting the Islamic militia.
Somalia has not had an effective government since 1991, when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and then turned on each other. The current administration was formed with the help of the United Nations two years ago, but it has failed to assert any control outside the town of Baidoa.
The Council of Islamic Courts, meanwhile, has steadily gained ground since taking over Mogadishu in June and now controls much of southern Somalia.
that have been posted about this article.
'); } } else{ document.write(''); } // -->
Even though much detail from the Iraq Study Group's report 'The Way Forward' was leaked to the media in the past two weeks, the impact of its release has been substantial in the US, in Iraq, and in Coalition of the Willing countries like Australia and the UK.
From recommending directly that negotiations begin with Iran and Syria to help end the war, to recognising the true cost of the war on the civilians of Iraq, from revealing that ethnic cleansing is a savage reality, to recognising that one of the chief causes of Muslim anger towards US policy is its tireless support of Israel's low-boil war against the Palestinians, from boldy stating just how much American money has been wasted on the war, to admitting that many American soldiers' lives were wasted on pointless missions, from detailing the murderous sprees undertaken by some members of the Iraqi Army and police force, to recognising the true number and power of the biggest Shiite militia force (60,000 strong) the Iraq Study Report is going to shock both supporters of the war and also its harshest critics.
While President Bush had weeks to prepare for the report, and no doubt was briefed extensively before he even thought about fronting the media, he still looked wiped out, knocked about and clearly shocked by the contents of the report.
Critics have accused Bush of being locked inside a bubble of No Bad News, a characteristic that has been widely reported where he has reacted almost violently to briefers, advisors and administration officials who tried to tell him since early 2004 that the situation on the ground in Iraq was far worse than he thought, or knew.
It is clear now that President Bush didn't want to know the reality, and allowed his inner circle to filter the news he recieved, or at least, the news he chose to believe.
Perhaps he actually read the report from cover to cover.
Even for someone like myself who has spent two to four hours most days reading media coverage, unclassified reports and milblogs on the Iraq War, 'The Way Forward' report hits right between the eyes.
It is that so much of the bad news, the truth, has been gathered together in this way that shocks you. You can read fragments every day for three years, but to cop the full load in one read, well, you can understand why President Bush is so clearly devastated.
There's already an enormous amount of coverage on the report's contents, and we've linked to some key summaries and 'what happens next' articles below, but for today we'll just directly quote the parts of the report that leapt out on a first reading :
"The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating . . .
[Maliki's government] is not adequately advancing national reconciliation, providing basic security, or delivering essential services."
"There is no guarantee for success in Iraq . .
. There is great suffering, and the daily lives of many Iraqis show little or no improvement. Pessimism is pervasive .
. . the ability of the United States to influence events (has been diminished and continues to be so)"
"Iraqis have not been convinced that they must take responsibility for their own future.
"
"U.S. forces seem to be caught in a mission that has no foreseeable end.
"
"The Iraqi government cannot now govern, sustain, and defend itself without the support of the United States."
"A collapse of Iraq's government and economy would further cripple a country already unable to meet its people's needs. Iraq's security forces could split along sectarian lines.
A humanitarian catastrophe could follow...
"
"(In the event of the government and ecomony collapsing)...
ethnic cleansing could escalate. The Iraqi people could be subjected to another strongman who flexes the political and military muscle required to impose order amid anarchy."
"The United Nations estimates that 1.
6 million are displaced within Iraq, and up to 1.8 million Iraqis have fled the country."
"The United States should embark on a robust diplomatic effort to establish an international support structure intended to stabilize Iraq and ease tensions in other countries in the region.
This support structure should include every country that has an interest in averting a chaotic Iraq, including all of Iraq's neighbors--Iran and Syria among them."
"There is no action the American military can take that, by itself, can bring about success in Iraq."
"Because events in Iraq have been set in motion by American decisions and actions, the United States has both a national and a moral interest in doing what it can to give Iraqis an opportunity to avert anarchy.
"
"Many military units are under significant strain . . .
many units do not have fully functional equipment for training when they redeploy to the United States."
"Given the ability of Iran and Syria to influence events within Iraq and their interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, the United States should try to engage them constructively."
"Iran appears content for the U.
S. military to be tied down in Iraq, a position that limits U.S.
options in addressing Iran's nuclear program ad allows Iran leverage over stability in Iraq."
"Iraq is a major test of, and strain on, U.S.
military, diplomatic, and financial capacities. Perceived failure there could diminish America's credibility and influence in a region that is the center of the Islamic world and vital to the world's energy supply."
"[T]he Syrians look the other way as arms and foreign fighters flow across their border into Iraq, and former Baathist leaders find a safe haven within Syria.
"
"Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states . . .
for the most part have been passive and disengaged. They have declined to provide debt relief or substantial economic assistance to the Iraqi government." "The United States cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict and regional instability.
There must be a renewed and sustained commitment by the United States to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on all fronts . . .
[including] direct talks with, by, and between Israel, Lebanon, Palestinians...
and Syria."
"Significant questions remain about the ethnic composition and loyalties of some Iraqi units--specifically, whether they will carry out missions on behalf of national goals instead of a sectarian agenda ."
"If the Iraqi government does not make substantial progress toward the achievement of milestones on national reconciliation, security, and governance, the United States should reduce its political, military, or economic support for the Iraqi government.
"
"The problems in the Iraqi police and criminal justice system are profound." "Terrorism could grow. As one Iraqi official told us, 'Al-Qaeda is now a franchise in Iraq, like McDonald's.
'"
"Al Qaeda is responsible for a small portion of the violence in Iraq, but that includes some of the more spectacular acts . . .
Al Qaeda in Iraq is now largely Iraqi-run and composed of Sunni Arabs. Foreign fighters--numbering an estimated 1,300--play a supporting role or carry out suicide operations."
The Shiite militias that both defending territory inside Baghdad and executing Sunnis in revenge attacks "are fragmenting, with an increasing breakdown in command structure .
. . The prevalence of militias sends a powerful message: political leaders can preserve and expand their power only if backed by armed force.
The Mahdi Army . . .
may number as many as 60,000 fighters."
"Sunni Arabs feel displaced because of the loss of their traditional position of power in Iraq."
"The Shia, the majority of Iraq's population, have gained power for the first time in more than 1,300 years.
"
It is well worth reading the entire report if you want to get a preview of how the 'War On Iraq' is unlikely to unfold in the next 12 to 24 months. It remains to be seen, however, whether or not Bush Co. will act on the key recommendations.
Should they fail to act, however, and should the ready-to-fire Democrat majority in the US Senate keep its pre-election promises, Bush Co. may find themselves in a civil war of their own, right in the heart of Washington DC.
THE WORLD NEWS IN BRIEF
LEBANON : Saudi King Abdullah has denounced the against the US-backed government of Lebanon, calling the massive rally a "siege" and of the Saudi kingdom to Prime Minister Fuad Siniora.
The pro-Syrian protestors are demanding that Siniora quit, claiming that he failed to confront the US over its backing of Israel's blood-soaked military strikes during the recent war concentrated in Southern Lebanon.
Across the Middle East, Sunni dominated governments and royalty are lining up against the spreading dominance of Shiite dominated governments, such as that of Iraq.
In Bahrain, long regarded as one of the most stable, and liberal, of all Middle East nations, in run-off elections, bringing a new Islamic conservatism to the US ally, and in turn deepening sectarian divides.
IRAQ : Black marketry surrounding the Iraqi oil industry forms the greater part of an estimated now referred to as "the second insurgency".
A claims that some $US100 million from the black market oil trade has already found its way into the hands of various insurgency groups. Oil pipelines are bombed forcing the oil to be transported by road where it can more easily stolen.
The corruption is so rife that $US9 billion of Iraqi oil revenue cannot be accounted for. One-third of all the rebuilding contracts issued since 2003 are now under criminal investigation.
More than an estimated 40% rise on the civilian deaths of October.
November also saw the deadliest terrorist strike in the entire war, with more than 200 killed when at least five car bombings hit a crowded market in Sadr City, Baghdad.
The Bush administration is now asking Congress to approve a further $100 billion in "emergency funds" to continue fighting the war, the largest demand for supplementary funding made so far. The US government's total defence bill for 2007 is set to reach $US500 billion.
More than is either wearing out or being destroyed in Iraq or Afghanistan each month.
The United States has spent fighting the Iraq War since 2003.
Car bombs in a Baghdad market today, leaving more than 80 wounded.
CHAD : Saudi Arabia has been accused by the Chad mission to the UN of supplying "Al Qaeda" mercenaries to fight in the eastern territories of the country. In the past few months, Chad has also accused Sudan of sending mercenaries into its region, and "exporting the ethnic fighting in Darfur".
The confrontations in Darfur see the Janjaweed (Arab militias) in pitched battles against African rebel groups, leading to the deaths of more than 300,000 civilians since 2003 and the flight of two million refugees.
IRAN : The Iranian president has announced that , covering oil, the economy and industries of Iraq. The agreement was reached without consultation with the Bush administration. The Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeated his demands that the United States withdraw military forces from Iraq, based around a negotiated timetable.
The Iranian president said unnamed countries should stop sending militants to fight in Iraq.
that they can do," he said "..
.Enemies of Iraq are trying to create differences and extend hostility among the Iraqi people."
The United States, the UK, Australia and Israel regularly accuse Iran of sending militants into Iraq, however the Iraqi prime minister and president recently announced there was no evidence to back up these accusations.
The United States is now signalling despite the lack of support from China and Russia in the United Nations Security Council.
AFGHANISTAN : Interesting background and fallout from the truce agreement reached between Afghan fighters and NATO troops from the United Kingdom in the Helmud province last month.
The 'truce' has ended most of the fighting in the province that saw British troops virtually locked down in their operations base for almost three months, and has seen calm return to the streets of local villages and towns.
The 'truce' agreement was brokered after Pakistan reached a similar peace with Taliban-aligned fighters on its border.
Some members of the Afghanistan government regard the 'truce' as a silent defeat for NATO against the Taliban.
Pakistani officials, meanwhile, have insisted that , at least according to the UK Telegraph.
VENEZUELA : Russia has begun shipping the first of more than in a deal worth an estimated $US1 billion.
The Russian built jet fighters will replace American and French jets currently used by the Chavez government. The United States strongly opposed the deal, claiming the Chavez government could not be trusted, but they could not stop the shipments without triggering an international incident.
News RSS