Super Wait

Posted on: January 23, 2007 at 9:18:04 am This is the part of the NFL season that most fans hate.
After a Sunday of triumphant victories and one tense finish, we've got 12 days until kickoff of Super Bowl XLI in Miami.
Start the hype machine, cue the instrumental music and play the grainy video of Pop Warner games past.

We're going to read, watch and listen to the fact that Peyton Manning has finally won the big game and to countless comparisons of the 2006-07 Bears and the 1985 team that shuffled into NFL lore.
Did you also know that Lovie and Dungy are best of buds?
And did you know that this will be the first time in the history of the NFL that an African-American coach will win?

(As a side note, hopefully this game inspires University presidents, chancellors, and regents around the country to diversify the ranks of Division One head coaches.)
By the time kickoff finally comes around at 1 p.m.

Hawaii time on February 4, no story line will be unheard, read or watched.
I want to watch the game now.
The Bears beat the Saints down and no amount of Reggie Bush finger wagging was going to keep the Monsters of the Midway and their disruptive, destructive defense out of the big game.

Sexy Rexy did not have a big game but it is starting to look like it doesn't matter what the unpredictable gunslinger brings to the corral on game day.
His defense and talented receiving corps have made up for those segments of the game where he loses touch with the plan and starts hurling passes toward anything in a like-colored jersey.
Peyton and the Colts beat Brady and Belichik to get to the big game and did it by pulling off the greatest comeback in championship game history.

I watched the game with a Pats fan who down the stretch got up and walked out of his apartment twice. As things started to unravel for the Pats, he began to compulsively clean his apartment, picking up dishes and scrubbing frying pans.
Thankfully he ditched alcohol for ice water after Reche Caldwell got hit in the crotch with a Brady pass in the end zone.

Who would you take with the Colts installed as touchdown favorites?
The Islander Girl sent me a text at work yesterday asking me whether the Bears or Colts would win.
She told all her co-workers the Bears are going to win and I may just bet accordingly.

But really, who the heck knows at this point?
There is way too much time to talk yourself into taking either team. all betting trends go out the window in the big game.

Historically, if you took the favorite and the over since 1962, you'd be in the black, barely.
Posted on: January 21, 2007 at 10:37:50 am Tom Brady and Bill Bellichik are 12-1 together in the playoffs.
No matter the circumstances surrounding their team, you get these guys into the playoffs and it is a different story.

Last week, against a San Diego team featuring the best player in football and eight other Pro Bowlers, the Patriots, somehow pulled off a 24-21 victory on the road. Granted, the Chargers made many mistakes.
They fumbled away interceptions, challenged perplexing plays and generally looked like a team that really wanted to squander the best regular season record in football.

That said, the Pats came out and overcame a sub-par game from Brady to rally in the final 3:26 seconds. And of course, Brady marched them down the field, twice, and they win in the final moments of the game.
We've all seen that before.

So the question today is, do the Pats keep going? Can they continue to deny Peyton Manning, arguably the best quarterback of his generation, in the post season?
Can they get in his head at home?

I don't think so.
By no means, do I think the Colts win running away. Despite the fact that the Pats are undermanned, Tom Brady is not going to let Peyton punk him in the playoffs.

Brady is the best big game quarterback in the NFL and his name deserve mention with the likes of Elway and Montana.
Manning, who has looked awful so far in the playoffs, just wants a shot at a Super Bowl ring and doesn't want to end up like Dan Fouts and Warren Moon, two Hall of Fame caliber players who never made it to the big game.
The Pats will play tough, and they will cover, but you know this game will be decided by an Adam Vinatieri field goal as time expires.

Brady is a big game baller, but it will be Peyton's day in the end.
Posted on: January 19, 2007 at 5:16:35 pm Based on the information available from Las Vegas, 68 to 75 percent of the money being wagered on this game is on the Saints.
The line opened in Vegas at Saints +4 but the betting public quickly whittled that down to +2 after watching Shaun Alexander and the so-so Seahawks run over the Bears defensive line.

Bears QB Sexy Rexy Grossman remains an enigma.
The guy didn't play bad last week but still looked clueless on certain plays. He will be facing a defense this week that Saints coach Sean Payton has designed to expose all of Grossman's weaknesses.

Whether that entails sending Grossman a bunch of girls and a case of Jack Daniels remains to be seen.
I think Grossman gets a bad wrap he's young, inconsistent, and at times overconfident, but he's talented and capable of big things.
Of course, he's also capable of horrific, forehead slapping things but what guy under the age of 35 isn't?

"We win one game and we're in the Super Bowl," Grossman told STATS Inc. "two wins away from having a ring on my finger for the rest of my life."
I admire the moxy, and this looks like the year of the Gator, but I can just see Saints DE Will Smith all over him.

The Saints became the first team in NFL history to earn a berth in the conference championship a year after losing 13 or more games.
QB Drew Brees, discarded by San Diego in the off season, is coming off a monster year. The Saints can pound the ball with Deuce but the weather in Chicago, slated for the mid to high 30's, may keep Reggie Bush's cuts and bursts to a minimum.

I called Chicago this morning to get a weather report from my friend who works for Morgan Stanley, Brian Hahn.
"It's cold here Pedro, no doubt about that," said Hahn, who likes the Bear's chances in their first title game appearence in 18 years.
Our editor thinks the Saints story is too good to be true.

The NFL marketing folks are locked in a church praying the Saints pull this off.
I love the Bears for their history and their rabid fans.
Going to school in Iowa, a three hour drive from Michigan Ave.

, I knew more kids from the Chicago-land area than I did from Iowa and these dudes loved the Bears, big time. I would like to see the city get back to the Super Bowl.
The Saints have a great story, but I don't want a Purdue alum going to the the big game.

Everybody is betting on the Saints to win on the road and everyone expects Grossman to implode and have an awful game.
Each of the ESPN experts picked the Saints, Hoge, Theismann, Jaworski, Allen, all on the bandwagon.
As Al Pacino's character, Ricky Roma, said in Glengarry Glen Ross,
"If everybody is thinking one thing, I say BET the other way.

"
Posted on: January 14, 2007 at 9:11:02 am The Seahawks don't have a prayer right? Shaun Alexander is at 50 percent, the defense is signing cornerbacks off the street and Matt Hasselbeck is playing erratic. The Bears are at home, Rex Grossman is going to prepare for this game (supposedly) and the defense will stymie the Seahawks.

The Bears will miss Mike Brown and Tommie Harris in this game. Harris provided and intense pass rush and Brown, at the safety spot, is the QB of the defense. Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren has a heck of a lot more playoff experience than Bears coach Lovie Smith and will get the most out of his players.

After the way Seattle escaped the Cowboys (they got Romo'd) no one expects them to win. They got lucky, the experts say, and the Bears will roll. However, nine points in a playoff game?

I'll take that.
A re-print of yesterday's prediction.
On paper, the Chargers are bringing much more than the Patriots to Sunday's matchup in San Diego.

LaDanian Tomlinson, the league's best player, will draw the focus of the defense and Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers has proven he can win games. How he would do without the NFL's single season rushing TD record holder is anybody's guess, but Rivers is coming to Honolulu after his first season as a starter. Beware, tams featuring a first year starting QB are 0-6 ion the post season in the last two years.

The Pats defense is better than it looks, although they will struggle to contain L.T., who simply can't be stopped.

New England (13-4) has won three Super Bowls since 2001, while San Diego has appeared in just one postseason game during that span, a 20-17 overtime loss to the Jets two years ago in the divisional round, according to STATS Inc.
The Chargers have more talent and the home field advantage. But I cannot bet against Brady in the Playoffs.

Posted on: January 12, 2007 at 12:16:50 am Two and two last week against the number. Already, better than the regular season.
On paper, the Chargers are bringing much more than the Patriots to Sunday's matchup in San Diego.

LaDanian Tomlinson, the league's best player, will draw the focus of the defense and Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers has proven he can win games. How he would do without the NFL's single season rushing TD record holder is anybody's guess, but Rivers is coming to Honolulu after his first season as a starter. Beware, tams featuring a first year starting QB are 0-6 ion the post season in the last two years.

The Charger's swarming defense, led by Shawn Merriman, a beast from Maryland, could give Tom Brady fits all day.
Brady, however is 11-1 in the postseason and Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 12-2 in the postseason and has the second-best winning percentage in NFL history. Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer is 5-12 in the playoffs.

The Pats defense is better than it looks, although they will struggle to contain L.T., who simply can't be stopped.

New England (13-4) has won three Super Bowls since 2001, while San Diego has appeared in just one postseason game during that span, a 20-17 overtime loss to the Jets two years ago in the divisional round, according to STATS Inc.
L.T.

knows who his team is playing.
"I'm not sure what to expect from him (Rivers)," Tomlinson told STATS Inc. "He is excited about being in the playoffs.

Part of being a quarterback, you keep that even keel of not getting too excited. But in the weight room just a while ago he was talking about how after the New England game, he was already ready to go. So I'm thinking to myself, 'We've got a long way to go.

We've got six days, Philip.'
"It's good, because he's excited to be in his first playoff game. For us who've played in the playoff game, we're reminded that a fast horse runs fast, but it don't run long," Tomlinson said.

The Chargers have more talent and the home field advantage. But I cannot bet against Brady in the Playoffs.
The Colts return to the land they left in 1983 to face a Ravens team with a ferocious defense and a savvy veteran under center.

Peyton Manning does not do well with the heat on and the Ravens figure to bring a lot of pressure. The Ravense defense is stifling and should be able to contain rookie runner Joseph Addai. Ravens QB Steve McNair came within a foot of winning a Super Bowl when Kevin Dyson got tackled as time expired.

He knows what the post season is all about and should do enough to help his team win. If Trent Dilfer can win with a tough defense, Air McNair certainly can. I'm afraid Peyton maybe my generation's Dan Marino.

A winner, a star, but not a champion.
I hear one more story about how the Eagles don't belong here and I'm going to scream. The Eagles have more post season experience than the most of the rosters currently active in the playoffs.

The Saints are marching, and have a ton of talent on offense, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing to the Redskins and the Panthers. I do not think the Eagles can go all the way to the NFC title game with Jeff Garcia under center, but they can cover the spread. Saints win a close one.