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The Democratic party is at a crossroads. At least that’s what I keep hearing on the idiot box, and reading in the editorial pages of the New York Times. After Presidential hopeful John Kerry was handed his ass by America’s new moral majority last Tuesday a number of deep Democratic thinkers suggested that, in order to remain viable, the party needs to move a little bit further to the right by softening its views on wedge issues like abortion, gay marriage, and the separation of Church and state.

On the front end it seems like a reasonable proposition, but as Banquo said to Macbeth, “Oftentimes, to win us to our harm, The instruments of darkness speak truths. Win us with honest trifles, to betray us In deepest consequence.” Cousins, a word I pray you.

President Bush’s mandate is non-existent. And while the white Christian population can’t be taken for granted, this new evangelism sweeping the nation is a Chimera, and not to be trusted. There are changes that need to be implemented within the Democratic policy, but they have precious little to do with altering the basic party platform.

Before getting into all the why’s and wherefores, let’s consider President Bush’s 3-million vote “mandate.” To put things in perspective Bill Clinton, deep in the throws of BJ-gate beat Bob Dole in 1996 by 8-million votes though he was denied a popular majority thanks to the candidacy of eccentric conservative Ross Perot who garnered—yes—8-million votes. In 2000 Gore, an “unpopular candidate,” received more votes than Clinton did in both 1992, and 1996 though he only beat George W.

Bush by half-a-million votes with nearly 3-million additional votes going to the extremely liberal Green party candidate Ralph Nader. Given the GOP’s general hegemony, and undeniably superior organizational skills it appears that in 2000 America was shifting left. But as they say, 9/11 changed everything, and it’s hard to ignore that things were looking pretty peachy for the underdog Kerry until Osama bin Laden decided to “endorse” the poor Democrat in his pre-election video.

In terms of the Electoral College the Bush “mandate” is based on the second smallest margin since Woodrow Wilson beat Charles Evans Hughes in 1916. The honors for smallest margin of victory go to George W. Bush for his Supreme Court assisted defeat of Al Gore in 2000.

If you look at the overwhelmingly red electoral map, marred by only a few specks of blue, it looks like all of America is Bush country. But that’s not true. For every 53 Republican who made it to the polls there were 48 Democrats.

If you added red and blue pigment to each state in direct proportion to the votes cast rather than color-coding the entire map according to the winner-take-all standard of the Electoral College what you see is a big purple country—a bicoastal bruise. Also, in spite of the hype about a gigantic voter turnout in 2004, the actual percentage of eligible voters who made it to the polls was lower than it was in 1992. Since the Democrats far outstripped the Republicans in terms of voter registration it can be assumed that they were less successful than the Republicans at getting their voters to the ballot box.

Jakob Nielson, an expert in the field of interactive technology did a comparison of content from the Bush and Kerry e-mail campaigns during the last week of the election. This isn’t what swayed the election in the President’s favor, but it does suggest that the Democrats made some major tactical mistakes.
In his veiled plea for a more conservative Democratic party former Clinton advisor Harold Ickes told the New York Times, “I think that we ignored in large measure the three big cultural issues of this election: guns, abortion and gay rights, epitomized by gay marriage… These are very, very big issues.

They really, really motivate people”
And he was correct. But in the last week, under the shadow of Osama, and the threat of an orange alert Kerry wasted a valuable resource begging for money instead of getting out the vote while Bush reminded his more religious constituents of the horrible fate the befell New York — and Sodom. This wasn’t a faith-based victory it was a fear-based victory.

Any Democratic fool who thinks his party is going to win over Evangelicals by softening its views on issues like abortion, gay marriage is living on Fantasy Island. The only thing such a shift would accomplish is breeding dissent in the ranks while sending a message to the masses that the Democrats are a waffle-loving party with their fingers in the air and no courage to back their alleged convictions. The first rule of winning is don’t act like a goddamn loser.

The second rule of winning is never forget the first rule. n
NEAR FALLUJA, Iraq, Nov. 4 - The marines crept forward, glancing warily at each other as they approached a bomb-scarred building covered with Arabic lettering.

Suddenly, one of them shouted "Sniper!" and another dropped to the ground as if wounded.
But instead of firing back, the men raised their guns and trilled their tongues to imitate the sound of machine-gun fire.

Within a few seconds, one of them called out "Sniper neutralized!" and they lowered their weapons.
It was one of the many urban warfare drills taking place in and around this bleak desert encampment in recent days, where the Marines expect to lead an all-out attack on Falluja soon.

Peace negotiations continue between the Iraqi government and delegates from the city, but American commanders seem convinced that it is only a matter of time before the Iraqi prime minister, Ayad Allawi, gives the order for them to retake the city, which has been held by insurgents since the Marines withdrew in April.
"Locked, cocked and ready to rock," said Lance Cpl. Dimitri Gavriel, 29, who left an investment banking job in Manhattan 18 months ago to enlist, using a popular Marine expression.

"That's about how we feel."
In the meantime, preparations continue at this makeshift military base. Tanks rumble through a barren landscape littered with shrapnel and husks of old vehicles, while helicopters throb overhead.

Detonations shake the ground at all hours - artillery units firing on guerrilla positions, or other military units blowing up old explosives. Occasional enemy mortars explode nearby. American jets soar overhead on their way to and from bombing runs, and at night fires glow on the horizon.

Many of the young marines expected to lead the attack have not yet been part of a major battle. Most of those who took part in the operation in Falluja in April have been sent home. And though some of the commanders here fought the first phase of the war last year, many of the rank and file arrived here for the first time in June.

All of them, though, seem eager to prove their mettle and at last confront the insurgency head on.
"It's kind of like the cancer of Iraq," said Lt. Steven Berch, a lanky platoon commander, speaking of Falluja.

"It's become a kind of hotel for the insurgents. Hopefully getting rid of them will help to stabilize the whole country."
Others point to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian militant who is said to be using Falluja as a base.

"We're doing the right thing here," said First Lt. Christopher Wilkens, pausing for breath during a drill. "These guys are terrorists, there are connections to Al Qaeda, and fighting them is what we came here to do.

"
The marines are housed in a network of bomb-scarred barracks once used by Saddam Hussein to train an Iranian exile opposition group. Arabic slogans meant to inspire the trainees remain on the walls, and a mural of Mr. Hussein's face still stares down from the wall of a converted mess hall.

Commanders would not reveal any details of how or when an attack might happen. But the invading force will certainly be larger than the one that struck at the insurgents here in April, and marines will be backed up by Iraqi troops as well as Army units.
Iraqi soldiers are already training here alongside the marines, and officers said their discipline has improved in recent months.

After the Marines withdrew from Falluja in April, the Iraqi security forces there quickly collapsed.
"We are improving day by day," said Major Abdul Jabar, executive officer of one of the Iraqi companies that will take part in the attack, as his men practiced disembarking from armored personnel carriers in the hot afternoon sun.
Before the fighting ends, American civil affairs units will move into the city to begin working on health and reconstruction projects, for which at least $20 million has been set aside, American officers said.

Marine lawyers will be ready to handle compensation claims for battle damage and to help verify any violations of the laws of warfare. The goal, commanders emphasize, is to hand over control of the city to Iraqi security forces.
Commanders say they expect the insurgents to use plenty of terrorist-style tactics like suicide bombs in cars or trucks.

Last Saturday, nine marines were killed and nine wounded when a suicide bomber in a car rammed their convoy near here, in the deadliest day for American troops in more than half a year.
The marines also expect heavy house-to-house fighting once they enter the city, and they are fully aware of the risks. During drills they do test runs of their arrival in Falluja, running out the back of the armored personnel carriers that will bring them into the city while carrying all their weapons and a 45-pound pack.

None of the dangers seem to rattle their confidence. Between drills, they do pull-ups and play touch football. In the evening, laughter echoes around the barracks, along with heavy metal music blasting from CD players.

It all reminds me of a line from a famous, or rather infamous, memo Pat Buchanan, then a White House staffer, wrote for Richard Nixon in, I believe, 1972 when their idea of the moment was what they called 'positive polarization'. At the end of this confidential strategy memo laying out various ideas about how to create social unrest over racial issues and confrontations with the judiciary, Buchanan wrote (and you can find this passage on p. 185 of Jonathan Schell's wonderful Time of Illusion): "In conclusion, this is a potential throw of the dice that could bring the media on our heads, and cut the Democratic Party and country in half; my view is that we would have far the larger half.

"

Atrios dangled a .

“Something’s Coming," he wrote. "The movement continues.

Stay Tuned.”

When Atrios didn't follow up right away his comment boards went nuts. Posters derided the poor guy, calling him everything but Duncan Whiteboy.

Half the thread was filled with people claiming to be, "devastated," begging Atrios for a crumb of hope: some clue to help them unravel the mystery of this "continuing movement."

They needed their dealer to tell them Black Tuesday was just a bad dream: Crack is on the way.

A Democratic victory on Tuesday seemed so very possible, those who committed their hearts, souls, minds and bodies to Kerry forgot thatvictory wasn’t some sort of done deal.

In spite of the technical GOP rout this isn't a Red America. It's purple.

Like a big black eye.

And now punch-drunk blog readers are venting their frustrations on Atrios who never gave them anything but lots of free “turkee."

All over the web there is weeping, and whining, and horrible angry shitstorms of blame-gaming.
“Fuck Kos, he let us down.

”
“And JMM, that bookworm hasn’t been laid since he took his cousin to see Air Supply in 1980.”
Blogging’s biggest guns don’t need me to defend them. They all seem like big boys capable of taking one for the team.

They know they've been the spiritual leaders in, what appears to be a failed Revolution. The great national bruise hurts like a mother.
But Karl Rove is taking extensive notes.

Infighting has always been the Left's Achilles heel; it’s what makes all our “interests” extra special.
The first rule of Fight Club is that nobody talks about Fight Club.
The first rule of winning is don't act like a goddamn loser.

Because you can’t lose if you never stop fighting.
If there’s a lesson we can all learn from the Right, that’s it.

Oh, and, "YO ADRIAN!

" [Cue Survivor...

Where are the effing balloons, somebody drop the balloons!"]

Now the time has come to speak the unspeakable. Is it possible that Kerry can carry Tennessee tomorrow?

Yes, but the damn rain isn't going to help.

Here's something to think about:

Lamar Alexander isn't running for anything. There isn't much beyond the Presidential election to get voters in East Tennessee to the polls.

Of course the Presidential election may be enough, but if the voter turnout in East Tennessee is lower than expected, the voter turnout in Middle Tennessee is near what's expected and the voter turnout in West Tennessee is higher than expected we might just pull off an upset.

My prediction: as Davidson County goes, so goes the state. My gut tells me that Nashville tilts red but is far more divided than Toby Keith would have you think.

The Tennessean, Nashville's daily paper which reaches out into all the surrounding middle Tennessee counties gave Kerry a fairly strong endorsement.
[snip]
The presidential race that now comes down to the wire has sunk to a new depth of rancor. Judging from all evidence, the nation's voters are bitterly divided between Kerry and President Bush.

And the senator and the president are as divided on the issues as any two major presidential nominees in recent memory.
No matter who is elected, the next president will need to heal the wounds of this campaign season.
But the next president also needs the ability to deal with the complexity of domestic and foreign problems, and the ability to bring people together ó across party lines, across national borders ó for the common good.

This newspaper believes that Kerry is the candidate who is best able to meet those challenges...

"
If memory serves, the last time around all these papers endorsed Bush except for the Flyer which, until 2004, maintained a policy of not endorsing candidates.
If we turn out voters here in West Tennessee we can tip this state.
The weather is nasty.

Find out if you can help drive people to the polls.